The Oklahoma City Thunder (13-7) take on the Atlanta Hawks (5-17) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 30, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.
Oklahoma City opened as a 13.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 225 points.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Free Prediction
The Hawks are hoping for a better outcome after not being able to cover as 12-point underdogs in their 108-94 loss to the Charlotte Hornets in their last matchup. The total points for the game (202) finished well under the projected point total of 230. One of Charlotte’s biggest strengths was getting to the charity stripe. They made 37 trips to the line, while Atlanta went 22 times. Trae Young was Atlanta’s leading scorer with 18 points on 7-for-19 shooting.
In the Thunder’s last matchup, they were victorious over the Cleveland Cavaliers, 100-83, covering as 13-point favorites. The game’s total points (183) finished well under the projected point total of 215. The Thunder knocked down 12 of their 15 free throws (80.0 percent) and held the Cavaliers to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.3 (below their season average of 27.9). With 23 points, 19 rebounds and 15 assists, Russell Westbrook led the way for Oklahoma City with his second triple-double of the season.
After the Thunder won both meetings against the Hawks last season, these teams will clash for the first time this year. In the most recent game, Oklahoma City won 119-107. The Thunder’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Hawks. Oklahoma City had a rate of 6.5, while Atlanta posted a mark of 13.3.
Atlanta comes into the contest with records of 5-17 straight up (SU) and 9-13 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Hawks games, with 12 overs compared to 10 unders.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS. Vegas is known to set the total high when the Thunder are involved, as 60.0 percent of their games have ended under the O/U total.
When considering effective field goal percentage, Oklahoma City should have a significant advantage. The Thunder defense ranks fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.501), while the Atlanta offense is ranked 22nd in effective field goal percentage (0.504). Ball security could be troublesome for the Hawks. They rank 30th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 16.5 percent), while the Thunder force the second-most turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 16.2 percent).
Atlanta Hawks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Atlanta is 6-6 ATS with 6 overs and 6 unders.
Oklahoma City is 6-5 ATS at home with 6 overs and 5 unders.
Oklahoma City is 4-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while Atlanta is 0-2.
The Hawks are 5-11 when they score over 100 points, while the Thunder are 11-3.
Oklahoma City averages 21.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks first in the league. Atlanta ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (22.4).
The Thunder rank second in second chance points per game (16.9) while the Hawks rank last in second chance points allowed per game (16.7).
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (10.3) while Atlanta ranks 27th in steals allowed per game (10.3).
The Thunder average 48.5 rebounds per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Hawks rank 27th in rebounds allowed per game (48.1).
Oklahoma City ranks seventh in fast break points per game (15.3) while Atlanta ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (16.1).
The Thunder rank 6 in three pointers allowed per game (29.35) while the Hawks rank 25 (33.86363636363637).
Oklahoma City ranks 13 in assists allowed per game (23.5) while Atlanta ranks 27 (27).
The Hawks average 6.090909090909091 blocks per game, which ranks 5 in the NBA. The Thunder rank 14 in blocks allowed per game (5).
Atlanta ranks 12 in points in the paint per game (48.72727272727273) while Oklahoma City ranks 14 in points allowed in the paint per game (48).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five outings, Atlanta is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Oklahoma City is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Hawks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 9.0, down from 10.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 108.6 points per game (1.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.8 points per game (3.5 below their season average).
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