The SEC West Division will be on display this weekend when the 11th-ranked Auburn Tigers travel to Death Valley to face-off with the LSU Tigers. This inner-conference grudge-match is set to start on Saturday, October 14th at 3:30 p.m. EST. The terrific battle between these two schools can be seen on CBS for your viewing enjoyment. As of this article, the Auburn Tigers are -7 point favorites and the game’s over/under sits at a low 44.5 points.
The Auburn Tigers continued with their winning ways when they dismantled Ole Miss 44-23 at home last weekend. As a result, the Tigers have now won four straight games and sit 5-1 on the season. Their lone defeat was to the defending national champs on the road in Clemson in Week 2.
The LSU Tigers managed to rebound from an upset loss to Troy by squeaking past #21 Florida 17-16 on the road last Saturday. The loss to the Troy Trojans ended the Tigers 49 game home win streak against non-conference opponents. Overall, LSU has a 29-20-1 advantage in the all-time series though Auburn exacted an 18-13 win at home on September 24, of 2016.
(11) Auburn Tigers (5-1)
The Auburn Tigers beat down Ole Miss with relative ease last week at home. Now, Auburn will shoot for their fifth consecutive win in this contest. The Tigers are one of two undefeated teams in the SEC West. Consequently, if things stay the same the Iron Bowl against the #1 Crimson Tide could decide the division. How about them apples.
Offensively, the Tigers have been doing a very good job of wearing team’s front sevens down with their powerful rushing attack. Coming into this game, Auburn sits 22nd in the nation with 228 yards per game on the ground. Three capable tailbacks blaze the trail to the end zone for head coach Gus Malzahn. Together, they have made a killing by rushing for almost 900 yards and 16 scores. Kerryon Johnson leads this group with 504 yards and an amazing 12 touchdowns.
Quarterback Jarrett Stidham hasn’t been asked to win games with his arm. Instead, he is asked to manage the offense and limit the turnovers while capitalizing on the play-action pass. For the most past, Stidham has done just that. So far, he has completed 71.2 percent of his passes for 1,345 yards with seven touchdowns and two picks. Unlike other signal-callers from Auburn, Stidham is more of a pocket-passer and isn’t a huge threat to run the ball effectively.
Wide receiver Ryan Davis is clearly Jarrett Stidham’s safety valve when they need to pass for a first down. Coming into this game, Davis has a team-high 31 catches. Those receptions have gone for just over 250 yards and three scores.On the other side of the field, will Hastings brings a different type of game to the Tigers’ passing arsenal. Hastings is their big-play guy, catching 13 passes for 270 yards (20.8 ypc) and two more scores.
The Auburn Tigers sport one of the nation’s best defenses. The unit is solid against the run (21st), and against the pass (20th). In fact, they rank 13th in the country, allowing only 287 total yards per game. They also are especially stingy in the red zone in 2017. The Tigers are giving way to only 13 points a game (6th).
LSU Tigers (4-2)
The LSU Tigers may be 4-2 but they sure as heck didn’t look good doing it. They barely beat a decimated Gators squad by a point and have thumped on the lowly BYU Cougars and Chattanooga. Their two losses are what stands out the most. They were embarrassed at home by the Troy Trojans and were trounced by Mississippi State on the road 37-7. Any way you cut it, they deserve to be a touchdown underdog for this game against Auburn.
The offense is a huge reason why the Tigers have limped their way to their 4-2 record. Running back Derrius Guise certainly hasn’t lived up to the pre-season Heisman Trophy hype in 2017. Whether he isn’t being fed the ball enough or there are some underlying issues, he continues to put up average numbers. For the year, Guise has toted the rock 82 times for 364 yards and four touchdowns. His 4.1 yard per carry average is a far cry from the over eight he had in 2016.
Maybe it’s because LSU has made up their minds that they are going to give teammate Darrel Williams his fair share of the work-load. The senior running back has almost mirrored Derrius Guise’s numbers this season. Overall, he has carried the ball 73 times for 355 yards and also has five trips to the end zone. One thing is for sure, the Tigers like to have Williams on the field in passing situations. He is clearly the better pass catcher of the two, reeling in 11 passes for 127 yards. Guise has only caught one pass for negative yardage.
Quarterback Danny Etling was supposed to be given a chance to show his skills when the LSU offense opened up their play calling some in 2017. Well, that simply has yet to happen this season. Etling has completed only 71 passes for just over 1,000 yards with six scores and an interception.
Because of the weak passing game, LSU only sports one wideout that I care to mention. Senior receiver D.J. Chark is the only weapon that can make much of a difference against Auburn this weekend. To date, Chark has caught a team-high 17 passes for 385 yards. Amazingly, the quick pass catcher boasts a 22.2 yard per catch average but has failed to score any points.
Last week, LSU’s defense combined for 4 sacks while allowing just 302 yards of total offense. They also only allowed Florida to go 2 for 9 on 3rd downs. Maybe the Tigers defense has finally started to turn the corner. Either way, they still are pretty good compared to most schools in Division I ball. Altogether, they sit 26th in the country allowing only 18.8 points per game and 18th in total yards per contest (308.8).
Prediction
The LSU Tigers have to find a way to be more offensively productive or they will continue to struggle during SEC play. To put it bluntly, they simply lack the offensive talent to get the job done. Sure, they do have two decent tailbacks but opposing teams know this and stack the box for all four quarters. That puts a lot of pressure on Danny Etling, who isn’t a great downfield passer.
On the other side of the ball, Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham has been good. Especially, in his last two games. The Auburn run game has also taken things to a new level coming into this match-up against the Tigers. With the plethora of weapons for Auburn offensively, they should be able to go on the road and come out a winner. I can’t foresee a game where this experienced and aggressive defense gives up too many points to the hapless LSU offense.
For those reasons, I’m going to make this pick easy for everybody. Even though this is a conference game and is in Death Valley, buy the -7 down a half point and take the Tigers from Auburn to cover. The over/under 44.5 is simply too low for me to play that under but it wouldn’t surprise me if it does hit. Especially if you’re riding the Auburn defense to hold the LSU Tigers under 17 points. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Auburn Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
The Auburn Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
The Under is 4-1 in the Tigers last 5 road games.
The LSU Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The LSU Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Under is 8-2-2 in the Tigers last 12 home games.
The Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
