It’s all on the line when the (4) Auburn Tigers take on the (6) Georgia Bulldogs for the SEC Championship and an entry into the College Football Playoffs. The clash at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is set to begin on Saturday, December 2nd at 4 p.m. EST and can be seen on the CBS Network. Heading into this game for all of the marbles, the Tigers are a slight -2.5 point favorite. The contest’s total also sits at 48 points which is down from 51 when it originally came out on Monday.
The Auburn Tigers have played their way into a chance to compete for a national title. At first, it seemed that the Tigers were a mere afterthought. After their second loss of the season to LSU in mid-October, most people had written Auburn out. Now, after back-to-back SEC victories over then 1st-ranked Georgia and last week against 1st-ranked Alabama, the Tigers are one game away from reaching the playoffs. The Tigers finished their regular season with a 7-1 record in conference play and were 10-2 overall.
The Georgia Bulldogs enter this match-up after dismantling in-state rivals the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 38-7. The victory put the Bulldogs at 11-1 on the season. They also finished out the year with a 7-1 record in the SEC, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Auburn Tigers. This is Georgia’s chance to get revenge and earn their way into one of the final four spots left for the College Football Playoffs.
(4) Auburn Tigers (10-2)
In their home game against the Georgia Bulldogs two weeks ago, the Tigers churned out 488 yards of total offense to the Bulldogs 230. Auburn’s stifling defense limited Georgia’s vaunted rushing attack to only 46 yards. Furthermore, the Bulldogs passing game led by freshman quarterback Jake Fromm did nowhere near enough to make up for it.
Auburn was led by quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who completed 16 of his 23 throws for 214 yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, Stidham was careful with the football as he didn’t serve up one single interception on the day. This season, Stidham has completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 2,682 yards with 16 touchdowns and four picks.
In the game against Georgia, the Tigers rushed for impressive 237 yards. Tailback Kerryon Johnson led the way once again with 167 yards. In 2017, Johnson has been a beast, toting the rock 250 times for 1,276 yards with 17 rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, he is banged up a bit and is listed as probable with a shoulder injury he suffered against the Crimson Tide.
Passing the football hasn’t been Auburn’s strong suit in 2017. Even so, they are improving in that department as the season has progressed. As of now, they rank 64thin the nation (242 ypg). Leading the way are wideouts Ryan Davis and Darius Slayton. Davis leads the team with 69 catches for just over 700 yards and five scores. Slayton is the big-play receiver who averages 25.5 yards a grab and also has five touchdowns to his credit.
Defensively, the Auburn Tigers have been a force to be reckoned with. Especially in the last three weeks where no team has been able to score even 20 points on this squad. In all, and against stiff competition, the Tigers rank ninth in the country in points allowed (16.4 ppg). As a whole, the defense also allows only 308 yards a contest, which is good for 13th in the nation.
(6) Georgia Bulldogs (11-1)
The Georgia Bulldogs gets a chance to avenge their most recent loss at Auburn. In fact, the stakes are even higher for this showdown. As this write-up indicates, the Bulldogs were still alive in both the SEC and the national discussion even after the setback to the Tigers three weeks ago. However, the loser of this game will be watching the College Football Playoffs with you and me.
The Bulldogs certainly have shown the ability to rebound after their defeat to the Auburn Tigers. In the last two weeks, they pounded Kentucky 42-13 and trounced Georgia Tech 38-7. In that game, the Bulldogs outrushed the Yellow Jackets by 56 yards and three different players reached pay-dirt on the ground.
Two Georgia running backs have done the majority of the damage for head coach Kirby Smart. Nick Chubb has been sensational, rushing for almost 1,100 yards and 13 trips to the back of the end zone. Not to be outdone, teammate Sony Michel has also recorded just under 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns of his own. This is the nation’s best one-two punch at the running back position.
Like Auburn, passing the football has been an afterthought for the Georgia Bulldogs. Quarterback Jake Fromm has been asked to manage the offense and not make any crucial mistakes that could cost them the game. So far, Fromm has done just that by passing for just under 2,000 yards with 19 touchdowns and only five picks.
Wide receivers Javon Wims and Terry Godwin are Fromm’s targets when he is asked to move the chains through the air. Together, the two wideouts have reeled in 62 catches for 1,132 yards and 11 scores. Wims lead the Bulldogs with 38 catches for 681 yards and six touchdowns.
On defense, the Bulldogs have been even better than the Auburn Tigers. They boast a strong front seven and have speed at every position. Amazingly, Georgia ranks in the top five in three of college football’s four major categories. Currently, they sit 5th in the country, surrendering only 13 points a game to their opponents. The secondary is ranked 4th in the FBS (159 ypg) and overall they yield to only 271 total yards a contest (4th).
Prediction
The powers that be have the Auburn Tigers as slight favorites for this re-match in the Mercedes -Benz Stadium on Saturday. Partly because they have beaten the Bulldogs handily before and partly because they are on such a roll. Georgia is hungry for revenge and Auburn has the momentum so this game should be lights-out.
Instead of focusing on the spread in this game, I am suggesting that the play here is with the over/under 48. I truly believe that this game is a coin toss that could go either way with a big turnover or special teams play. For that reason, I’m staying away from the line.
One thing I do know is that the Georgia defense will not allow Auburn to rack-up another 40 points against them. I’d be surprised if the Tigers even get 24. Likewise, I don’t see the Bulldogs solving the defensive scheme that Auburn had to beat them. They may get more yardage on the ground this time around but not enough to score 24 plus points. Take two of the nation’s best defenses in this game and play the under 48. Just hope and pray this close ballgame doesn’t find its way into overtime. @EriktheHun
Go to BetDSI Sportsbook to make a play on this SEC finale on Saturday.
Trends
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
The Under is 5-2 in the Bulldogs last 7 neutral site games.
The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Under is 3-0-2 in the Tigers last 5 neutral site games.
Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
