And so the Australian Open comes down to this: Serena Williams versus Angelique Kerber. Who do you have with your Australian Open picks? It’s safe to say that most people will be siding with Williams, who has played what many consider to be the best tennis of her career during this last year.
While there were many upsets and surprises in the Aussie Open, the one person that stood tall is the one everyone expected to take the crown. In the semifinals, she easily dismissed No. 4 seed Agnieszka Radwanska by a score of 6-0, 6-4. That type of scoreline indicates that Serena barely broke a sweat. The same happened in the quarters when she crushed Maria Sharapova while losing only five games. Why will things be any different against Kerber?
We’ll find out the answer to that question on Saturday night with the final women’s match of the tournament. If things play out as expected, Williams will win another major championship to add to her collection whereas for Kerber, this will be a first.
Serena Williams vs. Angelique Kerber
Odds: Williams -700
The history is amazing here. Serena Williams will try to tie Steffi Graf with 22 major singles titles, leaving her only two behind Margaret Court for first on the all-time list. Her opponent in this Australian Open women’s final is a German, and a person who (as you might expect) considers Graf to be her idol. Kerber will want to protect and defend Graf’s second-place major championship total, all while trying to win her first major title herself. It’s quite the convergence of historical pressure points in Melbourne Park.
Serena has been extremely strong in this tournament. Her first match against Camila Giorgi might have been her toughest one. After getting through that challenge, it’s been smooth sailing for one of the most dominant athletes of our time. Serena was not entirely precise in the middle rounds of this tournament, and there are pockets of one or two games in each match when she loses a little focus, but on a larger scale, she’s been extremely effective and potent, just as she normally is. She’s hitting the corners of the service box. She’s slugging the ball from both wings, getting good depth and angles into the ad corner. She’s coming to net when she knows she’s going to get a defensive lob or a short ball. Her ability to overpower her opponents is giving her a lot of chances to come into the net and win points quickly, without exhausting rallies from the baseline.
One thing to appreciate here is that Serena is not playing Victoria Azarenka, whom many felt was going to be not just the finalist, but the winner of this tournament. Azarenka entered this tournament without having lost a set in 2016. She was that dominant in the warm-up tournament before the Australian Open. She hadn’t even lost more than four games in a single set. She was that hot. In the first four rounds of this tournament, Azarenka didn’t lose a set or get taken into a tiebreaker. She remained in control. Her fitness appeared to be in top form. This was supposed to be the one player who could really give Serena trouble in a final.
Kerber took her out in straight sets in the quarterfinals. That tells you how much game Kerber has. The German is excellent on defense and can quickly turn that defense into offense. Kerber hits a very powerful two-handed backhand and can spin her lefty forehand in ways that make it tricky for a right-handed player to hit back with pace and accuracy. This is a match Kerber wants to turn into a messy dogfight from the baseline, but Serena punishes weak serves, and Kerber’s serve does not appear to be ready to hold up over two sets. Kerber should be able to win seven or eight games, but Serena should have the answers in the end, 6-4, 6-3.
Take Serena in straight sets. If tougher opponents haven’t challenged her, neither will Kerber.
Pick: Williams in straight sets
