NBA Betting – Health over Positioning
Making decisions on betting investment without or with incorrect information is the most frustrating mistake in a punters’ job. No matter how cautious and informed a punter is, those can happen multiple times over the course of such a long season as the NBA. As this, 2017-2018 regular season is drawing to a close, the risk of sudden odds change due to new information appearing grows over the comfort line and simply cannot be ignored.
It’s a catch-22 really. Closing your eyes and punting with hopes that no starters are going to pop up on the medical sheet during the game day is playing with fire. On the other hand, waiting close to the tip-off to make a betting decision means that all the value will be eaten by the sharps. The best way to prepare yourself for tiptoeing through this quicksand field is to search for the early signs of how a franchise prepares for what’s ahead.
Two years ago, the Warriors chased history, leaving an impression that their main goal was not the ring, but breaking the Michael Jordan and the 1992 Chicago Bulls enforced regular season wins barrier. There were other teams and times when grabbing a home court in as many rounds as possible was a prevailing factor. Even today, when the teams are fully aware of the ordeal this 82-games long season puts on their players, making history makes sense for the Toronto Raptors, who had never finished a season on top of their conference.
So, with one eye on the NBA Standings, we take a look at the teams who are most likely to err on the side of the caution, even if it would cost them a game or a few. Of course, this doesn’t account for the teams that have no motivation to play and are just crossing the names of their players with the intention of turning the lack of their production into an extra ping-pong ball in the upcoming draft lottery.
Boston E.R.
The Celtics are going nowhere. They’ve clinched the NBA playoffs, and are almost certain to finish as the no. 2 seed, trailing the Raptors by 5 losses without anyone even remotely close behind them. As a result, we are seeing Boston players falling down like flowers under a heavy hail. Last night, they’ve lost to the Washington Wizards in double overtime at home, playing without Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford. We’re not doubting that these players are hurt – at this point of the season, everyone’s hurt – but they are clearly understanding the position they are in and could surprise you with team news.
Have the Warriors conceded the race?
Curry turned 30 on the sidelines with a gimpy ankle, and Thompson has a crack in his shooting-hand thumb, so it’s not like their guys are resting. True, Curry was already on a borrowed time considering his injury history, and years of good fortune, combined with full workload are supposed to show one day. Still, resting Draymond Green on a night when both Splash Bros were out is clearly a signal that they don’t really care if the Rockets will finish on top on the standings. They’ve snapped a six-game ATS losing streak last night, but don’t seem a good bet going forward, especially when they start mixing in Iguodala, Livingston, and Durant to the DNP list.
Kawhi Leonard saga
The player that was odds-on favorite to win the MVP Award before the season, the San Antonio Spurs’ superstar forward Kawhi Leonard was supposed to be making a second comeback today versus the New Orleans Pelicans, but it won’t happen. Greg Popovich stated that Leonard had not been medically cleared by the pool of doctors monitoring his quad injury, but also suggested that the Spurs might not play him even if he would be cleared to play.
Popovich:
“He (Leonard) knows very well our history is pretty documented, if we’re going to err, we’re going to err on the conservative side because his career is going to be of paramount importance to us.”
Considering that they’ve shut down Duncan from the NBA playoffs to make sure his knee wouldn’t buckle down one year, we believe him. The Spurs are always looking farther into the future than any other franchise, and make moves that benefit players’ basketball longevity, so don’t be surprised if they continue with their gloved approach to players’ health even during the inevitable battle for the #8.
Be on high alert
We highlighted the three franchises that really stand out in this regard, but proceed with caution even with the other teams, as it only takes a single player missing out a game you have bet on to erase any value you might thought a price held. The Thunder and the Wolves burned a lot of their stars’ fuel to reach this point, and practically all Eastern playoff candidates are safely above the line, so watch for surprises there.
After all, you are betting under a certain set of factors and could just ask for a larger value up front. It will mean fewer bets, but also less bad taste in your mouth by the end of the regular season.
