Avoiding sucker bets in racing is pivotal for the player to maintain a winning bankroll but it’s not easy to resist temptation.
This game is hard enough for all involved when everything unfolds right but we all have to stay away from situations that spell disaster.
Players have to be really careful when horses drop in class. Going from a Maiden Special Weight to a maiden claimer is a whole other animal and we will discuss that later. The truth of the matter is that the public always seems to hammer a claimer that is dropping significantly in class.
Sure, droppers win every day at every track in the country but it can be a slippery slope and there are ways of avoiding sucker bets like this.
Think about it if you owned the particular horse in question.
If a horse was doing well, was seemingly sound and in good condition, why would you drop him?
If the horse were all-together, wouldn’t it be wiser to put that runner where he belongs, try to win a decent purse or two and then move on?
Some players will bet droppers almost blindly and that is a real mistake. Even a horse that takes a monster drop, say from a $50,000 claimer to a $20,000 claimer or even less will be up against it if that runner has zero speed.
That drop will not change his style and will not avoid putting him behind the 8 ball late in the race with a ton of work to do and the furlongs evaporating.
Granted, some trainers and owners don’t mind dropping horses to win. Midwest-based owner Frank Calabrese was infamous for claiming a horse, dropping and winning for fun.
In California back in the day, Mike Mitchell would win off the drop and the claim like clockwork so it’s imperative to know the players before making across-the-board judgments.
There are no sure things in this game and droppers are definitely in that category.
Avoiding sucker bets also came to the fore for fans at Gulfstream Park on January 12. Pulling G’s, who was a good third in the Grade 3 Midnight Lute Stakes last year, was returning in a claimer for a $40,000 price tag. He had been away but on the class drop fans took 5-1 and watched the runner come up short once again.
Moving to New York on January 14, know that avoiding sucker bets can also mean going from state-bred company to open company. The open race $125,000 Jazil was renewed last Saturday at Aqueduct. Royal Posse, a state-bred, had won five of his last nine races including the $300,000 Empire Classic. Four of those wins were against state-breds. He was bet down to 6-5 in the Jazil, and the runner was out of the money.
Another way of avoiding sucker bets is to stay far away from wagering on a confirmed turf horse trying dirt. Horses are creatures of habit and turf racing is a little less taxing than the pounding on dirt. A horse going turf to dirt will have to be dead fit to win.
We’ve seen this tried time and time again and in some big races. A star turf runner may not have many turf opportunities coming up but there is a major stakes race that is carded on dirt.
If the race was on turf, this runner would be one of the favorites but on the wrong surface, he will probably take a good deal of action and he could be on the outside looking in when the smoke clears.
Only the very top horses can have it both ways and excel on both turf and dirt. Avoiding sucker bets of this kind are mandatory to success.
Now, back to the Maiden Special Weight dropper. It took me awhile to catch on when I was a fledgling handicapper but it’s been pounded into my head. The MSW to maiden claiming drop is the biggest drop in the game and must be respected big time.
Since these runners have likely been facing some well-bred racers on the circuit, even if they have shown very little speed and very little form whatsoever, they rate a long look at the windows.
One exception to this kind of a play is when a horse cost a ton of money and shows up for sale.
If a runner is by a sire that commands a very high stud fee or if the runner cost $200,000 or so and is tried just once in MSW company and then dropped, that raises up the red flag. It’s often a case of the barn being realistic and trying to limit the losses quickly and get out.
Because of the drop, this kind runner will be bet big but this kind of a move often signals that the connections know what they have and they are in a spot to either fish or cut bait. Often in these kinds of deals, they are trying to cut bait and get a little back on the cost of the horse.
Also, if a horse is put in a situation where everything looks to be in his favor on a MSW to maiden claiming drop and he runs poorly with no apparent excuse, forget about it. Don’t get hooked into betting him again. If he wins, he wins but don’t chase a horse that had every chance to shine and threw in a clinker.
Avoiding Sucker Bets in Racing
