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Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Free Pick 09/25/18

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles will be facing off against their AL East rival Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. The game gets underway 7:10 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will televise the action.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Odds

The Red Sox are 106-51 straight up (SU) and 91-65 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 35.0 units for moneyline bettors and 24.0 units (ATS). The Orioles are 45-111 SU and have gone 64-91 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 53.4 units for moneyline bettors and 40.1 units ATS.

Red Sox games have had an over/under record of 72-76-8 in 2018. The Orioles have been a decent under bet with a total record of 70-80-5.

Right-hander Jimmy Yacabonis is getting the nod for the visiting Orioles. Yacabonis is 0-2 with a 6.34 ERA and 30 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with two strikeouts and a 5.79 ERA against Boston this year.

The Red Sox are turning to lefty David Price (15-7, 3.53 ERA), who has 171 strikeouts and 47 walks to his credit as well as a WHIP of 1.12. Price is 2-0 with 18 strikeouts and a 1.20 ERA over two starts against Baltimore this year.

Baltimore’s pitchers have allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.52 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 7.20 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.70, along with a WHIP of 1.50 and a K-per-9 of 8.16.

The Orioles offense has slashed .240/.300/.392 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game this year, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Baltimore’s hitters have been paced by outfielders Adam Jones and Trey Mancini. Jones is slashing .280/.310/.418 with 15 home runs, 61 RBIs and 53 runs scored. Mancini has a .242 average with 23 homers, 53 RBIs and 65 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Boston’s pitching staff has given up 3.9 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 3.76, a WHIP of 1.21 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.6. The bullpen has a 3.54 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 71 games against AL East foes, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.73 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.91.

The Boston hitters are putting up 5.3 runs per outing, including 5.4 per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .280/.374/.495 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts have led the Red Sox offense this year. Martinez is hitting .328/.402/.622 with 41 home runs, 124 RBIs and 106 runs scored, and the line for Betts stands at .343/.434/.639 with 32 homers, 80 RBIs, 125 runs and 29 steals.

The Orioles have lost 4.9 units and are 24-27 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 23 of those games, compared to 27 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 33.9 units and are 72-48 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 56 of those games, as opposed to 58 that’ve cashed the under.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The over has cashed in four of Baltimore’s last seven games.

Baltimore has recorded 20.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 24.0 over its last five.

The Orioles have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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