Kevin Gausman (2-6, 4.43 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (9-5, 4.05 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Baltimore Orioles (69-73) and the Boston Red Sox (68-74) at Camden Yards. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 14 and can be seen on NESN and MASN.
Gausman pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run, striking out five and walking one in a 2-1 defeat to the Yankees. Chris Davis (.263, 87 Rs, 42 HRs, 106 RBIs, 2 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs, one home run, and one RBI. Rodriguez went 7.0 innings, surrendering one run, striking out seven and walking one in a 6-2 win over the Phillies in his last outing. David Ortiz (.275, 67 Rs, 34 HRs, 95 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Red Sox, going 3 for 4 yesterday with two runs, two home runs, and four RBIs.
Baltimore is a slim -111 favorite at home against Boston. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of eight runs. The Orioles have an overall money line of -937 and a record as the favorite of 41-33. Within its division, Baltimore has a 15-10 record as favorite and a 30-29 record SU. The Orioles have no trouble scoring as they rank fifth in the AL in offense with 4.4 runs per game. Baltimore’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 6.8 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.2.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 29-35 record and an overall money line of -1,034. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 12-17 record against teams in their division, and a 6-4 record SU. Offensively, the Red Sox have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.7 runs per game by averaging 6.7 during that stretch. The Red Sox allow 4.8 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the AL East Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 5.4 against division foes.
The Orioles have controlled the season series, 9-4. The Orioles have a 19-18 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Rodriguez takes the mound. Gausman (RHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 49-53 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Bos, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston won its last game in a shutout, its seventh of the season. Baltimore has been shut out nine times this season.
The Orioles are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Red Sox have a 2-10 record when opponents give up that many walks.
When they are outhit, the Orioles are 11-54. The Red Sox have a 14-62 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 14th in home runs, Boston has hit 142 this season. Baltimore ranks third with 194 home runs.
Ranking 10th, Baltimore is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.53 per game. Boston ranks in the top five at second with 9.32.
Baltimore and Boston both rank in the top 10 of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Baltimore sits at ninth with an OPS of .737 and Boston ranks sixth with an OPS of .749.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 34-60. When the Orioles allow one or more homers, they have a 40-53 record.
