The Baltimore Orioles will play their division rival Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. New England Sports Network will showcase the matchup and the game gets underway at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Odds
The Red Sox are 31-15 SU and 22-23 ATS. They’ve gained 7.4 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 1.7 units against the spread (ATS). Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Orioles have gone 14-31 SU this year and are 18-26 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 15.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline over the early portions of the year and 9.0 units ATS. Baltimore’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Red Sox games have a 22-22-1 over/under record so far in 2018. Baltimore has an over/under record of 21-22-1.
The right-handed David Hess is the probable starter for the visiting Orioles. Hess is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and three strikeouts. He has yet to face the Red Sox this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.
The Red Sox will put the ball in the left hand of Eduardo Rodriguez (3-1, 4.68 ERA), who’s got 51 strikeouts and 16 walks this season as well as a 1.20 WHIP. Rodriguez is 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA across one starts against Baltimore this year.
Boston’s pitchers have allowed 3.9 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.73, a WHIP of 1.18 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.8. The bullpen has a 3.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 28 games against divisional foes, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.41 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.57.
The Boston hitters have produced 5.4 runs per contest, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .284/.342/.515 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez have led the Red Sox offense so far. Betts is hitting .368/.439/.767 with 15 home runs, 32 RBIs, 48 runs and 11 stolen bases, while Martinez’s line is .339/.392/.649 with 13 homers, 38 RBIs and 29 runs.
Compared to his total season slash line of .303/.376/.690, Martinez performed well at home in 2017, slashing .355/.439/.820 across 253 plate appearances.
For the visitors, Baltimore’s pitching staff allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starters own a 5.55 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 7.66 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.42, along with a K/9 of 8.08.
The Orioles offense has slashed .232/.298/.401 on its way to 4.1 runs scored per game this year, including 4.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Shortstop Manny Machado and left fielder Trey Mancini have led Baltimore’s offense. Machado is hitting .347/.424/.665 with 14 home runs, 42 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Mancini is hitting .259/.339/.416 with six homers, 16 RBIs and 26 runs scored.
Putting up a slash line of .229/.268/.398 across 336 plate appearances, Machado seemed to have some trouble hitting on the road last year (compared to his overall season slash line of .260/.311/.473).
The Orioles have lost 3.8 units and are 7-9 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in nine of those games, compared to six that’ve hit the under against lefties. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 9.3 units and are 19-16 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 18 of those games, compared to 16 which went under the total.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Red Sox have won three of their last four games SU.
Baltimore has recorded 24.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 23.6 over its last five.
The Orioles have hit 20 home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit 16 over their last 10.
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