In a game that could be a shootout, Wade Miley (5-5, 4.67 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (27-33) are in Baltimore to square off against Chris Tillman (3-7, 5.61 ERA) and the Orioles (28-30). This is the last of a three-game series at Camden Yards. The Orioles won the last game 5-2 and Baltimore leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 11 and can be seen on NESN, MASN and MLB Network.
Tillman is 8-3 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts against the Red Sox. Adam Jones (.306, 30 Rs, 9 HRs, 31 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. When pitching against the Orioles, Miley is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and three strikeouts. Dustin Pedroia (.312, 28 Rs, 8 HRs, 23 RBIs, 1 SB) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs.
Baltimore is a narrow -108 favorite at home against Boston. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of eight runs. The Orioles have an overall money line of -303 and a record as the favorite of 16-12. Baltimore has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. The Orioles have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.9 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.0 runs per game. The Orioles have no trouble scoring as they rank fifth in the AL in home offense with 4.5 runs per game. Baltimore’s pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 4.5 against fellow AL East members, compared to its 4.0 season average.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 9-10 record and an overall money line of -1,125. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 4-6 record against AL East rivals, and a 5-5 record SU. Boston is excellent at drawing walks with 3.2 per game, ranking second in the AL. The Red Sox allow 4.5 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the AL East Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 5.2 against division foes.
The Orioles lead the season series, 6-3. The Orioles have a 6-6 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Miley takes the mound. Tillman (RHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 19-23 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BAL, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 48% (12-13) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Baltimore has won 52% (12-11) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Orioles are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Red Sox have a 4-9 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
It looks like the Orioles have a slight leg up on the Red Sox, as the Orioles have won their last three games while the Red Sox have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 21-6. The Red Sox have a 23-4 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 23rd in runs, Boston has earned 223 this season. Baltimore ranks 20th with 236 runs.
Ranking 23rd, Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 140 this season. Boston ranks in the top five at fourth with 193.
The Orioles are 22-15 when they hit at least one home run. The Red Sox perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 20-16 record.
