Wei-Yin Chen (1-4, 3.18 ERA) and Rick Porcello (4-5, 5.01 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Baltimore Orioles (27-30) and the Boston Red Sox (27-32) at Camden Yards. The Orioles won the last game 1-0 and Baltimore leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jun. 10 and can be seen on NESN, MASN and ESPN.
Chen is 5-4 with a 3.79 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 59 strikeouts against the Red Sox. Jimmy Paredes (.301, 24 Rs, 6 HRs, 26 RBIs, 3 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 5 with one run and one RBI. Against the Orioles, Porcello is 3-6 with a 5.21 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 48 strikeouts.
Baltimore is a -122 favorite against Boston and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Orioles have an overall money line of -409 and a record as the favorite of 16-12. Within its division, Baltimore has a 10-8 record as favorite and a 15-17 record SU. The Orioles have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 3.0 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.1 runs per game. The Orioles have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the AL in home offense with 4.6 runs per game. Baltimore’s pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 4.7 against fellow AL East members, compared to its 4.1 season average.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 9-10 record and an overall money line of -1,009. They have been on a bit of a dry streak over their last 10 games. They managed a 0-1 record when playing as the underdog. Boston is excellent at drawing walks with 3.2 per game, ranking third in the AL. The Red Sox allow 4.5 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the AL East Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 5.4 against division foes.
The Orioles lead the season series, 5-3. The Orioles have a 21-24 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Porcello takes the mound. Chen (LHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have an 8-9 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BAL, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Red Sox lost by a margin of one run. The Orioles are 9-9 in one-run games. The Red Sox have a 9-8 record in close games.
Boston has won 48% (12-13) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Baltimore has won 52% (12-11) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Orioles are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Red Sox have a 10-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 4-26. The Orioles have a 4-20 record when opponents outhit them.
Boston ranks in the top half of the league at 13th when it comes to home runs, hitting 54 this season. Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 62.
Baltimore and Boston both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Baltimore sits at 10th with 8.38 hits per game and Boston ranks ninth with 8.41.
Ranking 19th, Boston is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.691). Baltimore ranks in the top half at 15th with an OPS of .709.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 11-26, well-matched with the Orioles who are 14-21 when allowing at least one homer.
