The Baltimore Ravens (4-7) face off against the Miami Dolphins (4-7) at Sun Life Stadium this week. The game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Dec 6 and can be seen on CBS.
Miami dropped one to the Jets 38-20 last week. Jarvis Landry had an outstanding performance in the loss, totaling 13 catches for 165 yards and one TD. Ryan Tannehill also had a big game with 351 yards and three TDs through the air. Baltimore is hoping for a similar result as last week when they beat the Browns 33-27. Lardarius Webb led the way for the Baltimore defense, registering seven tackles. Kamar Aiken had a big game as well, totaling 80 yards and a TD on six receptions.
Miami is a four-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 44 points.
Heading into Week 13 of league action, the Dolphins are 4-7 for both Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS). In the past five games, Miami is 1-4 for both SU and ATS. The Dolphins have a strong running game at home with an average of 6.0 yards per carry in home games, good enough for tops in the league. The Dolphins should be able to profit from Baltimore’s struggles during the third quarter, when it gives up 5.7 points per game.
As for their opponent, the Ravens have a record of 2-7-2 ATS and 4-7 SU. In the previous five games, Baltimore has a record of 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS. Offensively, they might be able to exploit a defense that struggles at home. The Dolphins give up a whopping 29.5 points per home game. If Miami’s earlier games are any indication, the Ravens should look to exploit a weak rush defense. The Dolphins allow 138.4 rushing yards per game, rankings last in the NFL. Switching gears to the Baltimore defense, there are certain areas where it measures up well against the Dolphins. The Ravens will face a Miami run game that has not been reliable this year. The Dolphins rank 27th in the league with 91.5 rushing yards per game. The Ravens need to capitalize on opportunities against the mediocre pass protection of Miami, which ranks 27th in the league in sacks allowed with three per game. The Ravens generally save their best for last, averaging 9.2 points in the fourth quarter. The calls start to add up for Miami when the team plays at home. The team receives an average of eight penalties per home game, one of the highest rates in the NFL.
Predictions: SU Winner – Bal, ATS Winner – Bal, O/U – Under
Notes
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games at home.
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami’s last 12 games when playing Baltimore.
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore.
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami’s last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore.
Baltimore is 1-2 SU this season, when leading at the half. Miami is 2-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
This season, Baltimore is only 2-5 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and an even 1-1 SU when losing the turnover battle.
Miami has induced an average of 8.5 penalties on opponents this season. Baltimore is only 1-5 SU when penalized eight or more times in a game.
According to season yardage rankings, Baltimore is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 18th-ranked rushing attack will face the last-ranked run defense of Miami, while its eighth-ranked rush defense will look to contain the 27th-ranked run game of the Dolphins.
