It’s no secret that the major rules difference between the American League and National League is expected to impact the number of runs scored on each side. The fact that pitchers must hit in NL games while AL teams get designated hitters should in theory lead to higher scoring games on the AL side. However, the fact that the sportsbooks account for those numbers could mean the numbers are in favor of betting the total to go over the number in NL games and betting the under in AL games. For what it’s worth, four of the top five teams in terms of betting the over this season reside in the NL. Here is a look at the best teams to bet on for over bets so far this MLB season.
New York Mets (29-10-6)
The Mets are the perfect example of how a failed perception of a team can lead to a major disparity when it comes to the results of totals for their game. New York was expected to contend in the NL East on the strength of a potentially dominant pitching staff while the offense was just good enough to put them over the top. However, the Mets staff has been destroyed by injuries and inconsistent play and the results have been devastating. New York’s pitching staff ranks 30th in the majors with a 5.09 ERA. They rank 25th in quality starts, 28th in BAA and 30th in WHIP so far this season. The Mets offense has been better than expected and while it hasn’t been enough to help them consistently win games it has been enough to make them to No. 1 team in the majors when it comes to betting the over. 29 of New York’s 45 games have gone over the number, which is the highest mark in baseball so far this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (29-17-1)
Milwaukee is right there with the Mets at the top of the list of teams that have produced the most over bets this season. The Brewers offense ranks fifth in the majors in runs scored while their pitching staff ranks 20th in ERA allowed. That combination has led to plenty of high scoring games this season with the over hitting in 29 of Milwaukee’s 47 games. The Brewers have the offense to continue to score runs at a high level. As long as their pitching staff continues to struggle they should remain a consistent pick for betting the over this season.
Chicago Cubs (28-16-2)
The Cubs have found their way back to the top of the AL Central following a slow start and it’s no secret what has plagued them to this point in the season. Chicago ranks ninth in the majors in runs scored but consistency was an issue for the defending World Series champions early on. The Cubs pitching staff is too good for them to be this high on the list for much longer so it will be interesting to see if they continue to be a strong option for the over bets. 28 of Chicago’s first 46 games have gone over the total, which makes them the third-best team in terms of producing overs so far this season.
Atlanta Braves (28-17-0)
Offensive consistency could be the key to Atlanta remaining near the top of this list in 2017. The Braves pitching staff has produced a 4.70 ERA that ranks 25th in the majors and there isn’t much reason to expect them to improve dramatically in that area. Meanwhile, Atlanta has ranked near the middle of the pack in runs scored thanks to the third-best team batting average and the fifth-best OBP in the majors. The loss of Freddie Freeman hurts but the Braves replaced at least some of his production with the addition of Matt Adams from the St. Louis Cardinals. The over has hit in 28 of Atlanta’s 45 games so far this season so it will be interesting to see if that trend continues.
Tampa Bay Rays (28-22-0)
Who would have thought that the Rays would be the only AL team on this list? Tampa Bay has played .500 ball through its first 50 games but ranks fifth in the majors in terms of hitting the over on the total this season. The Rays pitching staff has produced the fifth-best ERA in the majors so that definitely hasn’t been the reason for the higher rate on the totals. However, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 10th in the majors in runs scored, which is probably better than expected to this point. The perception of the Rays as a lower scoring team built to grind out wins likely works in favor of them hitting the over more consistently so far this season. Tampa Bay will be in tough to keep up the offensive production so it will be interesting to see if there is a correction in terms of the number of times they go over the total this season.
The baseball season is in full swing, so if you’re looking at betting lines, in-game baseball betting and World Series futures, click here to bet on baseball (or any other sports) at BetDSI!
