Teams that are relatively in a poor form will square off at BayArena in Leverkusen as the part of very exciting Round 33 in the German Bundesliga this weekend. These two are also leading two different battles but when you hear the team’s names it sounds pretty much lopsided. Yes, Bayer Leverkusen is in the battle for survival and Koln FC is in the battle for the Europa League spot!? Surprisingly bad and surprisingly good seasons are a common thing in Germany and we should be used to that by now. Never mind the drama, we have prepared for you the analysis of this match in order to get some money out of it so let’s take a closer look.
BAYER 04 LEVERKUSEN vs. FC KOLN
3-Way: 1: Bayer 04 Leverkusen +129; X: +271 Draw; FC Koln +250
Spread -0.5: Bayer 04 Leverkusen +120; FC Koln -127
Total +2.5: Over -130; Under +129
BAYER 04 LEVERKUSEN
The Factory XI (Bayer 04 Leverkusen nickname) is another famous German soccer team that is disastrously underperforming this season in the German Bundesliga. To be exact, the team has not yet secured the survival in the league. From the begging, entire season looked like a nightmare for the Leverkusen’s fans as the team managed to string together more than one win in the row only three times since August. After firing the head coach Roger Schmidt on March 5th things didn’t go much better and the Turkish expert Tayfun Korkut’s place at the helm is still not safe. First thing that he will definitely have to do is to secure the survival and then we’ll see what will happen in the offseason.
Currently, team ranks 12th in the German Bundesliga table with 37 points in 32 games, three points above the relegation line and we have to admit that many different parts would have to come together in order to see the Leverkusen team in Zweita next season but still, the fans are not looking very patient and calm. Team is winless in last five overall games and they have also failed to win in last five home matches.
They are 1-3-4 in the last eight matchups and 1-3-0 in the last four games at BayArena. Overall record at home is 5-5-6 with 25-26 goal difference (45-51 overall) and they rank 15th in the home league table with 20 of 48 possible points earned. Leverkusen scores 1.56 and concedes 1.63 goals at home (1.41-1.59 overall) and they are the only team in Germany this season that conceded more goals at home than on the road. 62% of Leverkusen’s home games had over 2.5 goals while astonishing 44% of their home matches had over 3.5 goals in total.
Only 19% of the matchups at BayArena had over 2.5 goals at the halftime but in 62% of those games both teams scored. Leverkusen scores at least one goal in both halves in every third game at home soil and they concede at least one goal in every fourth home game. Most common results at home are 1:1 and 0:0 draws, 3:1 win and 3:2 loss (all occurred twice) while most common score at the halftime was 1:0 lead (occurred five times).
Chicharito Hernadez tops the team in scoring with 10 goals in the German Bundesliga while Hakan Calhanoglu and Kevin Volland have six each in their accounts. Julain Brandt and Karim Bellarabi led the team in assists with six each while passing segment belongs to midfielder Kevin Kampl who collected mesmerizing 1437 total passes in 29 games. Goalie Leno Bernd (32 appearances) collected 98 saves and he also has six games with clean sheets so far.
Calhanoglu is suspended until the end of the season while Lars Bender is out for the season due to an ankle injury. Jonathan Tah (Thigh), Omer Toprak (Ankle), Julain Brandt (Thigh) and Vladlen Yurchenko (Back) are all listed as doubtful.
FC KOLN
After FC Koln entered the season with seven rounds with no defeat last year the critics and the fans knew that boss Peter Stoger has a good thing going this season. Team did slow down a little bit after that furious entrance but two rounds before the end of the German Bundesliga, they find themselves in the battle for one of the spots that lead to Europa League competition next year and that is definitely something to be happy about. Currently, they rank seventh in the German Bundesliga with 45 points in 32 games, only one point less than Hertha that is ranked at the No. 6 spot (Europa League spot).
When it comes to a recent form, the team play warm-cold but are currently undefeated in the last three games (since 2:1 loss on the road by FC Augsburg on April 15th) and they are coming off from a pulse-racing home win over the team that is in the best form in the Germany at the moment, Werder Bremen. The Billy Goats managed to outscore and outplay Werder in a seven-goal epic blockbuster at RheinEnergieStadion last weekend, snapping the visitors’ 11 games undefeated streak.
They are 3-2-3 in the last eight games and they are 0-2-2 in the last four road matches. Overall record on the road this season is 3—6-7 with 20-23 goal difference (47-40 overall) and the team ranks 11th in the away league table with 15 of 48 possible points earned. Team scores 1.25 and concedes 1.44 goals when visiting (1.47-1.25 overall) and 62% of their road matches had over 2.5 goals in total. Almost every third game away (31%) had over 3.5 goals in total and both teams scored in 69% of the Koln’s FC road matchups.
In 28% of the games team managed to concede at least one goal in both halves and in 22% they managed to score at least one goal in both halves. Most common result on the road is a 2:1 loss (occurred four times) and most common score at halftime is 1:1 (occurred five times).
Anthony Modeste is having a record-breaking year as he scored 25 goals so far (second in the league) while Yuya Osako has six in his account. Osako and Lenoardo Bittencourt top the team in assists with five each while passing segment belongs to defender Jonas Hector with 1187 total passes. Goalies Timo Horn (18 appearances), Thomas Kessler (13 appearances) and Sven Muller (one appearance) have 104 saves and nine games with clean sheets combined.
Pawel Olkowski (Muscle) is listed as doubtful for Saturday while Sehrou Guirassy’s (Muscle) status is unknown. Marcel Risse (Cruciate ligament) is back in training.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Koln – Match Prediction
As usual, both teams are in a desperate need of points but I’m sure that they will enter this match very carefully. Even though the stats are saying that it might be a high scoring game, I would rather go with the under because of the importance of the clash. In addition, I will go with the hosts to win this very important clash.
My pick: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (+129)
Additional Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+129)
