The second of the two remaining clashes of the German Bundesliga round 6 that will take place on the second day of the weekend will take place at Bay-Arena in Leverkusen between hosts and guests from the north, Hamburger SV. Leverkusen is coming off from a third loss of the season that occurred on Wednesday in Berlin against Hertha while Hamburger SV suffered a defeat by the current league leader Borussia Dortmund at home.
Two teams with form going south like Sherman are not a good promise for a high-quality soccer but the matchup could still end up to be very interesting because there is no clear favorite at the moment. Let’s check the squads’ tendencies in order to evaluate possible outcomes that can help you with your piggy back balance.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV
Three-Way: 1: Bayer Leverkusen -208; X: +425 Draw; Hamburger SV +775
Spread -1.5: Bayer Leverkusen +120; Hamburger SV -120
Total +3: Over -111; Under +102
BAYER LEVERKUSEN
The Bayer Leverkusen team has only one victory so far that came in week four against Freiburg at home and was a pretty convincing one (4:0). Everything else the team has shown in the league so far should be forgotten as soon as possible because final result shows that they have enough juice to fight equally with their opponents but are unable to finish it up the right way. Defeat against Bayern Munich and a draw against Hoffenheim in first two weeks were expected but especially disturbing was the road loss against Mainz (1:3) and last round’s defeat by Hertha (1:2). Lack of motivation and string of negative results have obviously made an impact on the player’s mindsets and a near win is an imperative right now.
They currently rank at No. 14 spot in the league table with four total points earned and 9-10 goal difference (6-2 at home). Team scores 1.80 goals and concedes 2.00 goals per game. Every league game so far had over 2.5 goals in total while 80% of those had over 3.5 goals in total. In 40% of their overall matches, they managed to score at least one goal in both halves and concede at least one goal in both halves.
In a loss against Hertha, coach Heiko Herrlich started with a 4-4-2 scheme with L. Bender, Retsos, S. Bender and Wendell in the defensive line. Bellarabi, Aranguiz, Kohr, and Brandt operated in the middle of the field while Havertz and Volland started as centre-forwards. Julian Brandt was the only scorer for the team six minutes before the final whistle. Bayer Leverkusen had the initiative throughout the entire game with 63% ball possession and 17 shots towards the opponents’ goal oppose to only eight by the team from the capital but the final result made their effort brittle. Individually, Dominik Kohr presented the biggest threat for Hertha’s goalie Rune Jarstein with four total shots while Sven Bender and Panagiotis Retsos controlled the middle of the field with 91.8% and 90.0% of passes completed. Kevin Volland and Julian Brandt top the team in scoring so far with two goals scored each.
Jonathan Tah (muscle) is doubtful for Sunday while Julian Baumgartlinger (virus) and Panagiotis Takis Retsos (knee) are both back in training and should be in circulation for Sunday’s matchup.
HAMBURGER SV
It looks like the week 4 prediction that we posted about Hamburger’s fans receiving a big scare with a home loss against RB Leipzig, 0:2. And that being a start of the possible losing streak came true. Since then, the Red Shorts haven’t scored a single goal while conceding five and now they find themselves in a three-game losing streak after defeats against Hannover 96 (0:2) on the road and Dortmund (0:3) on home soil.
Thanks to two initial wins team are currently ranked at No. 11 spot with six total points earned and 4-8 goal difference (3-3 on the road). They are scoring 0.80 goals per match and conceding 1.60 goals per game while 40% of their overall matchups had over 2.5 goals in total. In one of those five matchups so far they managed to score at least one goal in both halves and in 20% of the games they managed to concede at least one goal in both halves. Against Dortmund team got outplayed and outscored big time and 4-2-1-3 scheme set by coach Gisdol didn’t have the desired effect. Sakai, Mavraj, Papadopoulos and Diekmeier started the game in front of goalie Mathenia while Wallace and Jung had defensive midfield assignments on their “to-do” list. Sejad Salihovic presented the backup for strikers Holtby, Wood and Hahn. They managed to record only eight total shots towards Burki’s goal oppose to 24 by Dortmund while having the ball in their possession for 47% of the time. Individually, Andre Hahn presented the biggest threat to opponents+ goal with three total shots while Gideon Jung and Christian Mathenia tried to control the middle of the field with 79.4% and 71.4% of passes completed. Nicolai Muller, Andre Hahn, Bobby Wood and Leon Holtby have one goal scored each in their accounts so far.
Filip Kostic (thigh) who got injured on Friday is expected to be out until at least early October while Aaron Hunt (thigh) should be back in a few weeks. Nicolai Muller (cruciate ligament) will not see any action before late February next year while Wallace’s (unknown), Rick Van Drongelen’s (hip) and Mats Kohlert’s (muscle) status is unknown. Pierre-Michael Lasogga (thigh) is listed as day to day while Albin Ekdal who injured his back in training on Monday is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s clash.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV – Match Prediction
Last season these two teams went “three for three” in head to head matchups with home team wins (1:0 in Hamburger, 3:1 in Leverkusen). Most of their duels so far where home-team-oriented as Hamburger’s most recent full-pray collection in Leverkusen occurred eight years ago on 22nd February 2009.
Still, these tendencies don’t exclude possible upset but I’m pretty positive that Leverkusen shouldn’t lose this game. When we look at the both teams’ results, we can see that Leverkusen never went down without a fight while Hamburger seems to be lacking efficiency in last three games having in mind that they didn’t score a single goal.
The home team is expected to win but when it comes to a possible number of total goals scored in the match, I sincerely don’t have clue how it might fold out. It could easily become a one-sided performance with Leverkusen destroying its opponent but it can also be a goal by goal matchup because it’s hard to believe that Hamburger SV can record four matches without a goal scored. This is why my pick will be both teams to score.
My pick: Both teams score YES (-120)
