Big 12 foes will lock horns when the No. 24 Texas Longhorns (17-9) square off against the No. 25 Baylor Bears (19-7) at Frank Erwin Special Events Center. Action begins at 2:00 pm ET on Saturday, Feb. 20 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Longhorns come into this game on a high note after beating West Virginia 85-78 on Tuesday. Isaiah Taylor was the game’s high scorer with 23 points on 5-for-12 shooting. The Bears are coming off a 100-91 win over Iowa State on Tuesday. Johnathan Motley had a good performance, accounting for 27 points and 10 rebounds to claim his fourth double-double of the season.
Baylor may control the offensive boards in this matchup, as they place third in the nation in OR% at 40.7%. On the other hand, Texas ranks 302nd in the nation on the defensive glass with a DR% of 67.5%.
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Longhorns winning the first matchup 67-59. Despite the loss, Rico Gathers was a top performer in the game with 20 points, eight rebounds, and three steals.
The Longhorns come into this game 17-9 Straight Up (SU) and 13-12 Against The Spread (ATS). The Texas defense has done poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 74.6 points per game, well above their season average of 67.5. An area where the Longhorns are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 4.7 blocks per game, 50th in Division I. Texas is very careful and attentive with the ball, averaging the 20th-fewest turnovers per game at only 10.5.
As for their opponent, the Bears have a 19-7 SU record, but have struggled ATS with a 7-12-1 record. Most recently, Baylor is 8-2 ATS over the last 10 games. During the last 10 games, they averaged 69.6 PPG, below their 78.9 PPG season average. The Bears convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking 35th in the nation at .742. The Bears have controlled the offensive glass with an average of 13.9 offensive rebounds per game, 15th in the country. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Bears. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.55.
In their previous meeting this season, Texas beat Baylor, taking the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over their most recent meetings. The Longhorns hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4. Baylor held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once in the last five game, while Texas wasn’t able to do so in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor
Notes
“Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games “.
“Texas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games “.
“The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas’s last 7 games “.
“Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home”.
“Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas’s last 9 games at home”.
“Texas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baylor”.
“The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas’s last 10 games when playing Baylor”.
“Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baylor”.
“Texas is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Baylor”.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas’s last 5 games when playing at home against Baylor”.
The Baylor Bears average 78.9 points per game, ranking 42nd in the nation. The Texas Longhorns rank 68th in points allowed with 67.5.
Ranked 16th, the Baylor Bears have an offensive rating of 116.3. The Texas Longhorns rank 106th with a defensive rating of just 100.3.
Baylor has an average field goal percentage of 47.1%. Texas is a poor 2-4 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Texas Longhorns rank lower for their field goal percentage (196th) than they do for their effective field goal percentage (188th), but the Baylor Bears have a better FG% ranking (42nd) than eFG% ranking (84th).
Ranked second in the nation, Baylor has an average of 19.3 assists per game. Texas ranks lower at 284th with 11.8.
Texas, the 50th-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 4.7 per game. Baylor does worse, ranked 111th with 4.0.
When it comes to offensive rebounds, Baylor ranks 15th. Texas ranks 260th in defensive rebounds.
On average, Baylor forces a turnover rate of 20.3%. When Texas turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has an outstanding 5-1 record.
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