The No.5-seeded Baylor Bears (22-11) and No.12-seeded Yale Bulldogs (22-6) get together in the first round of the NCAA tournament at Dunkin’ Donuts Center. The game starts at 2:45 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 17 and can be seen on CBS.
The Bears fell to Kansas 70-66 in the 3 of the Big 12 tournament. Rico Gathers had a good game, recording 13 points, nine rebounds, and one steal for Baylor. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are coming off a 71-55 win over Columbia in their last outing. Nick Victor claimed his second double-double of the season with 12 points and 12 rebounds.
This matchup pits one of the nation’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses, as Baylor currently ranks 29th in the nation in offensive efficiency and Yale is seventh in defensive efficiency. Moreover, the Bulldogs are among the nation’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking third in OR% at 39.4%. But the Bears rank 29th at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 71.8%.
The Bears look to build on their records of 22-11 Straight Up (SU) and 12-14-1 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 7-3 ATS. Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than Baylor, which ranks 37th at 1.38. Crossing over to the defensive end of the court, the Bears prevent teams from making three-pointers, ranking 44th in the nation with 228 total three-pointers allowed (6.0 per game).
In the other locker room, the Bulldogs have a record of 11-6-2 ATS and 22-6 SU. Yale has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3. Yale is one of the better rebounding teams in Division I. The Bulldogs average 40.4 rebounds per game, making them the 20th-best team in the country for that category. The Yale defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing only 5.0 field goals from three-point range per game.
This game will be the first meeting for Baylor and Yale in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor
Notes
“Baylor is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games “.
“Baylor is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games “.
Ranked seventh, the Yale Bulldogs have one of the top defenses in the country, giving up just 94.5 points per 100 possessions. The Baylor Bears rank 29th in offense, scoring 114.1 points in the same number of possessions.
On average, Baylor has 67.6 possessions per game and scores 1.141 points on each possession. Yale has both fewer possessions (66.6) and scores fewer points during those possessions (1.128).
The Baylor Bears average an effective field goal percentage of 51.9% this season. The Yale Bulldogs have split their games this season (3-3) when opponents have an eFG% of 51.9% or greater.
The Baylor Bears average 16.0 three point attempts per game and are 4-6 when attempting at least 20 in a game. The Yale Bulldogs average 17.0 attempts and have an outstanding record (7-2) when attempting 20 or more.
Baylor ranks 37th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.38. Yale is ranked lower at 123rd with an A/TO of 1.13.
The Yale Bulldogs average 40.4 rebounds per game and are ranked 20th. The Baylor Bears average 37.4 rebounds per game, ranked 105th.
When it comes to offensive rebounds, Yale ranks 18th. Baylor ranks 296th in defensive rebounds.
On average, Baylor forces a turnover rate of 20.3%, ranked 18th in the nation. When Yale turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 10-5 record.
