The Baylor Bears head east to face-off with the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown on Saturday, December 3rd. The BIG-12 match-up is scheduled to start at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on the Fox Sports 1 Network. In the last regular game of the season, the Mountaineers are -17.5 point favorites and the over/under is 68.5 points.
At the halfway point in the 2016 season, this match-up was being circled as a possible BIG-12 championship game. Both programs were undefeated and soaring in the rankings, so it all made perfect sense.
Since then, the Baylor Bears imploded and lost their starting quarterback Seth Russell for the remainder of the year. West Virginia proved no match for either the Sooners or the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Baylor (6-5):
The Bears enter the final weekend of the regular season on a five-game losing streak, knowing that a coaching change is coming once the years over. Baylor does have a victory over Oklahoma State, which will play for a Big 12 title this weekend.
Other than that, it’s been a lost season in Waco. That really doesn’t come as a surprise considering the off-field scandal that rocked the school’s program and led to coach Art Briles’ firing in May.
Now that Seth Russell has hung up his cleats, quarterback Zach Smith will begin his tenure as the Bear’s signal-caller. In just two games, Smith has completed 73 passes for 907 yards with eight touchdowns and four picks.
A large dose of the running game is to be expected from Baylor this weekend. Shock Linwood has returned from his one-game suspension to boost the running game for his greenhorn quarterback. His stable-mate Terence Williams actually leads the Bears in rushing. This season, Williams has totaled 855 yards and 10 scores.
Wide receiver KD Cannon is the player that has been moving the ball down the field consistently for the Baylor Bears in 2016. The talented wide out has reeled in 68 catches for 905 yards and 10 scores. Three other Baylor receivers have caught at least 30 balls and have multiple end zone appearances.
The Baylor defense absolutely fell apart when they ran into the meat of their schedule four weeks ago. Since that time, they have allowed an average of 31 points a contest BIG-12 foes. They are especially weak against the run, giving way to 201 yards a game (90th).
#16 West Virginia (9-2):
West Virginia wasn’t good enough to beat the BIG-12’s two best clubs. Still, the Mountaineers have a lot more at stake this weekend. They can claim 10 victories for the first time since playing in the conference, while improving their post-season destination.
Quarterback Skylar Howard rebound nicely last week after his crushing defeat to the Sooners. The accurate passer threw for 350 yards and five scores with no interceptions. All told, Howard has amassed 3,083 yards and has also thrown for 24 touchdowns with 10 picks.
West Virginia likes to keep their offensive attack balanced. Tail backs Justin Crawford and Rushel Shell do just that, accumulating well over 1,400 yards and touchdowns. Skyler Howard has pitched in with another 374 yards and a team-high eight scores over the ground.
Wide receivers Daikiel Shorts and Shelton Gibson have stepped-up for the passing attack of the Mountaineers. Together, the two talented pass-catchers have racked-up 95 balls for well over 1,700 yards and 12 scores. Gibson likes the long ball, leading the team with a 23.2 yards per catch average.
The West Virginia defense can give up some yardage at times during the course of a game, but they stiffen up in the red zone. The Mountaineers are 37th in the nation allowing only 23.6 points per game. Also, the front seven does okay against running backs, allowing only 173.6 yards a game which is 65th in the country.
Trends and Notes:
The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Under is 5-1 in the Bears last 6 games in December.
The Under is 13-5 in the Mountaineers last 18 home games.
Game Prediction:
There’s little doubt in anyone’s minds that the wheels have completely fallen off the Baylor bus. The question is, can coach Jim Grobe rally the troops for one last regular season game against the Mountaineers.
West Virginia clearly will be the more motivated team coming into this match-up. A 10- win season is a big deal around these parts and now they are in a position to do it in front of their home fans.
It’s going to be a chilly December day at Milan Puskar Stadium in West Virginia. The Mountaineers will look to pound the rock behind their sturdy offensive line. Kansas State laid the ground work for that success last week and it’s not going to get any easier against West Virginia.
Baylor may find a few ways to move the football at times on Saturday, but the red zone will become a problem. West Virginia will control the clock and keep a decisive lead after half-time. Ignore the gaudy 17.5 point spread in this one and take the under 68.5 on a cold day in coal country.
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