The Belmont Stakes history must be recognized for the simple fact that things that have happened in the past sometimes have happened for a legitimate, logical reason.
When evaluating results, Belmont Stakes history suggests that there could be a longshot on Saturday in the mile and a half classic. Seven of the last nine winners of the Belmont Stakes were 9-1 or higher. The superfecta is never easy to hit. It requires that a bettor pick the first four finishers and that is a chore on a Monday, a Tuesday or in the Belmont Stakes. The superfecta is still the place to shop if runners want to get paid this Saturday at Belmont Park. In the last ten years, the $1 superfecta in the Belmont Stakes has averaged nearly $10,000. One of the major players that keyed this phenomenon is Da’Tara, who was 38-1 when he won the Belmont Stakes in 2008.
Belmont Stakes history is not kind to runners that have been speed challenged in recent years. The last winner that won this race conceding ten lengths or more was Jazil in 2006. Previous decent success in the Kentucky Derby has also not been a brilliant thing for a Belmont Stakes winner. The last horse that ran second in the Kentucky Derby and won the Belmont Stakes was Empire Maker in 2003.
With that Belmont Stakes history in mind, it could put pressure on the long-fused Lookin at Lee. This Steve Asmussen trainee was beaten less than three lengths by Always Dreaming in the Derby but was still five lengths in front of the third finisher Battle of Midway.
Running in the Kentucky Derby, skipping the Preakness, and running in the Belmont Stakes has been a pretty nice ploy in recent years. Since 2000, eight runners have used this strategy to win the third leg of the Triple Crown. One of those runners, Birdstone, stopped the tour de force known as Smarty Jones, who was shooting to win all three Triple Crown races in 2004 before Birdstone nailed him in the stretch.
It is still kind of cool to be fashionably late to the party and that has worked throughout Belmont Stakes history. Five of the last ten Belmont Stakes winners were racing on the Triple Crown Trail for the first time. They were Tonalist, Drosselmeyer, Ruler on Ice, Da’Tara and Rags to Riches.
The horses that are shooting for this same kind of success on Saturday are Twisted Tom, Hollywood Handsome, Meantime and Epicharis.
Experience can be overrated in the Belmont Stakes at times. In the last 16 years, only three horses raced in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and won the Belmont Stakes. They were Point Given, Afleet Alex and American Pharoah.
Racing in all of the Triple Crown races is extremely taxing. Remember, these horses are in some cases not even fully-formed three-year-olds at this point of their careers. To be put under the pressure of running three races in five weeks at three different venues is not for the faint of heart. Back in the day, horses were raced into shape. As long as they were relatively sound, trainers would be hard on horses in years past and ask them to get out and run. Things have changed drastically in horseracing in the last ten years. With so much money offered around the country, owners and trainers can point to certain races and map out a game plan. Since 1990 only eight runners tried the Derby and Preakness and still won the Belmont Stakes.
They say speed kills and that is what Belmont Stakes history says too. In 2015, American Pharoah showed how great he really was by making the lead in the Belmont Stakes and leading all the way. He was only the second horse to lead the entire Belmont Stakes distance since Swale did it in 1984.
Anything can happen in sports. Last year in the NBA playoffs we witnessed the Golden State Warriors come back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Oklahoma Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. The Cleveland Cavaliers did the same thing last year to the Warriors in the Finals. Upsets occur, it’s part of life and Belmont Stakes history says that the biggest upset in this race came in 2002 when Sarava shocked the racing world beating War Emblem and paying over $142.
There is a term in horseracing that refers to bridge jumpers. It relates to a bettor that will just pluck down a ton of money on horses that look to be invincible. Most of these runners are odds-on and the bettor will sometimes bet to show only. The point is that betting horses that are odds-on will not pay the mortgage. It will not be a sound strategy to use in the long run and the Belmont Stakes history proves it.
There have been nine odds-on Belmont Stakes starters since 1979. Eight of them have lost and some of the ones that have lost are flat-out legends. Spectacular Bid stepped on a safety pin before the Belmont Stakes in 1979 and his rider Ronny Franklin made a pre-mature move and got the horse beat. Smarty Jones was also poorly ridden in 2004 by Steward Elliott and Smarty’s bid for a Triple Crown was lost in the process. Please be careful putting your hard-earned money down on a prohibitive favorite on Saturday.
Belmont Stakes history also tells us that having a fresh horse for this classic is not a bad thing. Since 1938 15 runners that were jumping into the Triple Crown series for the first time won.
The way the Belmont Stakes shapes up this year is a bit puzzling. From the start of the year, there has not been a single horse that has captured the imagination of bettors or fans. It’s not fair to judge a crop of horses until they run against older horses late in the year but this crop does not look exceptional.
There could be worse ways to approach this year’s Belmont Stakes than tossing the favorite in the exacta. The great American Pharoah has been the only Belmont Stakes favorite to finish in the exacta since 2017. That is a key stat for Belmont Stakes history.
