The European Tour will make its way to South Africa this week and Sun City for the Nedbank Challenge. This tournament will mark the penultimate stop of the Race to Dubai and while Francesco Molinari is over a million points clear of his main rivals taking part, the main focus for the majority of the field is securing a place in the 60-man field for the DP World Tour Championship next week. We took the time to break down the field and identify the picks that look the most attractive on paper, including the favorites and some quality sleeper picks. Here is a look at the best bets to win the Nedbank Challenge this week.
Event Details
Event: Nedbank Challenge
Date: November 8th-11th, 2018
Category: European
Location: Gary Player Golf Course, Sun City, South Africa
Past Five Winners
2017: Branden Grace -11
2016: Alexander Noren -14
2015: Marc Leishman -19
2014: Danny Willett -18
2013: Thomas Bjorn -20
Rory McIlroy +705
McIlroy is the most intriguing play on the board this week because he is the betting favorite for obvious reasons, but it’s hard to project where he currently stands. McIlroy has the talent to dominate this field but it’s hard to get a good idea of where his head is. The wins have dried up of late but McIlroy also has a number of top-10 results, so perhaps he is overdue. Clearly the sportsbooks understand his potential, which is why he is the favorite to win this tournament.
Sergio Garcia +1015
Garcia is another intriguing play coming off his Ryder Cup high heading in to an event that he loves. Sergio won a championship here in back in the 12-man field days in 2001 and 2003, and he was the runner-up here in 2013 as well. +1015 odds is pretty good value for a player of Garcia’s caliber.
Louis Oosthuizen +1250
Oosthuizen knows the course better than almost everybody in it. He hasn’t finished outside of the top-14 in seven-career starts here, including two top-10 finishes the last two years. The fan favorite has looked sharp of late. There is a very good chance he capitalizes on an invite here this year with another top-10 finish.
Branden Grace +1650
Grace might be the best value option in the field this week as the defending champion. A year ago, Grace registered back-to-back top-15 results before winning in South Africa. This year’s lead-in hasn’t been nearly as strong but in some ways that could be a good thing when you consider how favorably it has moved his betting odds to win this week. Grace is a proven champion at this event. He will be in the mix again this year.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2050
Fitzpatrick finished T-8th here a year ago and has big upside this year if he can eliminate the uncharacteristic mistakes that kept him from finishing higher. Fitzpatrick was a winner at the European Masters in September and is definitely capable of delivering more than we have seen from him of late. Fitzpatrick is due for a strong performance so perhaps this is the week he contends for the outright victory.
Andy Sullivan +2250
Each of Sullivan’s first two wins came in South Africa and he finished third at this venue back in 2016. While he hasn’t won outright, Sullivan has been extremely consistent of late with four top-20 finishes in his last five starts. All of the numbers indicate that he should be in the mix again this week in Sun City.
Lee Westwood +2850
Before we get in to the really deep plays, let’s talk about Westwood and his potential to win this event outright. Westwood won this event in back-to-back years back in 2010 and 2011 and he finished in the top-six in his return to this tournament a year ago. The underlying numbers support the idea that Westwood could contend this week. At +2850 odds, he is definitely worth taking a chance on in South Africa.
Odds To Win The 2018 Nedbank Golf Challenge
Rory McIlroy +705
Sergio Garcia +1015
Haotong Li +1250
Louis Oosthuizen +1250
Shane Lowry +1650
Branden Grace +1650
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2050
Lucas Bjerregaard +2050
Andy Sullivan +2250
Lee Westwood +2850
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +2550
Joost Luiten +3250
Tom Lewis +3250
Danny Willett +2600
Alexander Levy +3550
Julian Suri +3550
Charl Schwartzel +3550
Alexander Bjork +4050
Martin Kaymer +3550
Lucas Herbert +4050
Matt Wallace +4050
Andrea Pavan +4550
Chris Wood +4550
Erik van Rooyen +5050
Ryan Fox +5050
Jordan Smith +5050
Ross Fisher +5050
Dylan Frittelli +5500
Mikko Korhonen +5500
Sam Horsfield +5500
