We’re going to get back to basics with this week’s best college football underdog picks. Teams playing at home in high-emotion situations can often keep games close behind the passion of their fans and the players who badly want to make a splash. We’ll stick with that theme this Saturday and find some home underdogs to get us back on track.
Underdog pick No. 1: Utah State
At BYU (-2.5), 9 p.m. ET Friday, ESPN2
OK, note that I said we’d stick with the home-dog theme this Saturday, but not necessarily all weekend. To kick off the weekend, we’re going with a road team on Friday night. This is a risky proposition, as home teams generally fare well in weekday games, but this is a short trip and two teams going in opposite directions. BYU has the famous wins over Arizona and Wisconsin and even made a brief appearance in last week’s AP Top 25, but the Cougars’ computer profile isn’t as good as their resume, making them overvalued. Meanwhile, remember Utah State? The Aggies scared the daylights out of Michigan State in East Lansing to open the season and have won three straight by double digits, averaging 58 points per game in the process. Quarterback Jordan Love is an unsung star and Utah State would love nothing more than to beat its better-known state rival on national TV.
Related: College Football Betting Guide | College Football Teasers
Pick: Utah State +2.5
Underdog pick No. 2: Rutgers
Vs. Illinois (-4.5), noon ET, Big Ten Network
Now to the home teams. Rutgers had an atrocious start to the season, losing by 49 to Ohio State (no high crime) and 41 to Kansas and 29 to Buffalo (very high crimes). But the Scarlet Knights played much better last week against a good team in Indiana and seem to have at least figured out their defense. That would be bad news for Illinois, which doesn’t score a lot anyway and also hasn’t played away from home yet. In a game between two evenly matched teams, having 4.5 points will come in handy.
Pick: Rutgers +4.5
Underdog pick No. 3: Ball State
Vs. Northern Illinois (-3.5), 3 p.m. ET, ESPN3
The Huskies have been one of the top teams in the Mid-American Conference for a decade, so it’s easy to see this line and think NIU will cover. Again, that could be an indication that they’re overvalued. Ball State played Notre Dame tough on the road and has put up 40 or more points twice this season. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, needs this game to be low-scoring. The Huskies haven’t scored more than 26 points in a game, and that came last week in triple overtime at Eastern Michigan. Take the better offense and the points.
Pick: Ball State +3.5
Underdog pick No. 4: Florida
Vs. LSU (-2.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
In one of the biggest games of the weekend nationally, we’ll go to Gainesville for our latest home underdog pick. LSU has won its two biggest games of the year away from home, so betting against the Tigers isn’t for the faint of heart. But Florida also is playing much better, especially defensively, and the Gators’ one questionable loss, against Kentucky, doesn’t look so questionable now that the Wildcats are 5-0 and ranked in the top 15. This should be a very close game from start to finish, with neither team allowing the other many explosive plays. In a game like that, you like home field and the points (sense a theme here?).
Pick: Florida +2.5
Underdog pick No. 5: Mississippi State
Vs. Auburn (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Finally, we’ll take a team that hasn’t been so hot — Mississippi State was knocking on the door of the top 10 before back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Florida — and try to find some value. Auburn has been just fine, with a close win against one top 10 team (Washington) and a close loss to another (LSU). But the Tigers haven’t been convincing of their lofty ranking. This is a tricky game, with State struggling and its back against the wall. With all of that emotion, it’s worth gambling on the home dog yet again.
Pick: Mississippi State +3.5
SEASON RECORD: 10-17 ATS, 6-21 straight up
