For the second consecutive week underdogs posted a losing record, going 7-8 in Week 5 of the NFL season. Still, considering dogs put up winning records in Weeks 2 and 3, then were barely under .500 in Weeks 4 and 5, they’re still doing their job of blowing up parlays, ruining suicide pools and hopefully making some of you money.
I’ve carefully looked at the schedule for Week 6 and picked out three solid contenders for potential upsets, or at least spread beaters. So, here are the best NFL underdog picks of the week.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+1, O/U: 44.5)
Before the Browns went on this explosive 2-2-1 tear this season, do you know the last team they beat? You have to go all the way back to the 2016 season on Christmas Eve, but this Cleveland team coached by Hue Jackson defeated the then San Diego Chargers 20-17. Indeed it was the first, and until the New York Jets in Week 3 of this season, only win of Jackson’s coaching tenure with the Browns.
A lot of shrugged shoulders around the NFL when the @Browns took Denzel Ward 4th overall back in April.
Five weeks into the 2018 season, Ward leads the entire NFL with 9 pass deflections and is tied for the DB lead with 3 interceptions.
Again, credit to Dorsey/Wolf/Highsmith.
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) October 10, 2018
Now Anthony Lynn, one of the worst coaches in all of the NFL, brings his consistently under-performing Chargers (3-2) squad into Cleveland? To face Baker Mayfield Mania? The Browns, if you can believe it, are the best team the Chargers have faced since the Rams. Meanwhile the Browns are actually battle-tested, nearly pulling of huge upsets over the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints on the way to the most .500 record in history. The only thing that would make me nervous about picking Cleveland here is that Hue Jackson is a garbage coach too. Like Esterhaus used to say …
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5, O/U: 45)
I know I made fun of the Jets being favored last week and they went out and won anyway. It doesn’t matter. I’m not falling for this line. Indianapolis (1-4) is three plays away from being 4-1. New York (2-3) has a couple of close losses of their own, so this one could very well come down to Sam Darnold vs. Andrew Luck and that’s a sucker’s bet if I’ve ever seen one.
With all the talk about outstanding QB play: Drew Brees @Saints Patrick Mahomes @Chiefs , etc. I don’t think anybody is playing better than Andrew Luck @colts especially considering the depleted roster he is playing with @nflnetwork
— Charley Casserly (@CharleyCasserly) October 11, 2018
The Colts have plenty of defensive issues, but this has to be a game about Luck. Any worry about his health is out the door at this point. The Colts are on pace to set a league record in pass attempts and last week Wolverine was 38-of-59 for 365 yards, three touchdowns and two picks.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, O/U: 53)
Here’s a fun stat if you’re not a Bengals (4-1) fan. Cincinnati, under Marvin Lewis, is 8-24 against the Steelers (2-2-1) all time. As good as Cincinnati is against the Baltimore Ravens, they’ve been as bad against Pittsburgh. And there have been plenty of good Bengals teams in the mix there that just couldn’t get the job done against the Steelers, in the regular season and the playoffs.
Bengals week. pic.twitter.com/5XlRQdiPUi
— Billy Hartford (@BudDupreeFan) October 10, 2018
The worry here, if you like the dog, is that the 2018 Bengals just look like the better team. Pittsburgh’s defense improved last week, but has been terrible since Week 1. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been generous with the ball, tossing six picks and he’s fumbled the ball four times, losing two of them. Vontaze Burfict is back for Cincy and he always plays big (and sometimes dumb) against the Steelers. This could end up being a train wreck, body bag type of game. It’s one that the Steelers have regularly won. Still, I like the Bengals a lot this season and this game, like last week’s Miami Dolphins match-up, could really elevate them to contender status.
