Underdogs went 6-9 in Week 6 and flirted with finishing better than that. After starting the season with three consecutive weeks above .500, dogs have finished below that mark, with this past week’s six underdog victories the lowest total so far in the season. What does that mean?
It means the league is righting itself and the sportsbooks are wising up. Still, there are teams looking at plus points that you’ll want to toss your money at. Here are best NFL underdog picks for Week 7.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5, O/U: 42)
Look no further than the worst Thursday night game of 2018 (so far) for your first potential upset. The Broncos (2-4) come in as a -1.5 favorite over a Cardinals (1-5) team starting a rookie quarterback. Here’s why I don’t like Denver to cover or, frankly, even win.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
The Broncos run defense is atrocious, the worst in the league. Opposing teams average 161.3 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry against them. Last week they surrendered a career-high 208 yards to Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams. Sure, you might say, that’s Gurley and the Rams offense have been tearing teams up all season. You’re right about that, but David Johnson of the Cardinals is no slouch himself. He’s been itching for a breakout game on the ground and Denver, on the road, is prime to help that happen.
David Johnson on carrying the load to improve the struggling #AZCardinals offense, “I think everyone is looking at me because of the success I had in past years and I definitely take on that roll and I want to do as much as I can and uplift this offense and get everyone going.”
— Omar Ruiz (@OmarDRuiz) October 17, 2018
The Arizona offense has improved under rookie quarterback Josh Rosen in his three starts. You know who’s offense hasn’t been improving at all? Denver’s. Case Keenum has decided to return to his old form. He wasn’t terrible against the Rams last Sunday, but it says something when a guy’s back up (in this case Chad Kelly) gets a standing ovation just to take a knee before the end of the half.
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, O/U: 43)
For weeks I’ve tried to convince you, and myself, not to sleep on the Colts. After last week’s debacle against the New York Jets, all I can say is “nighty night.” There are obviously major issues with Indianapolis and while I’m not ready to pick Buffalo to win this game, 7.5 points is a lot. The Bills are 3-3 against the spread this season and have beaten it in three of their last four games.
What should Colts make of Buffalo Bills?
Offense is an eyesore: 31st in total yds (222.5), 32nd in passing (123 per game), 32nd in points (12.7).
Defense is legit: 3rd in yds (311.7), 8th against run (92.5), 6th against pass (219.2), 12th in points (23). 19 sacks.— Mike Chappell (@mchappell51) October 17, 2018
They have the No. 8 ranked run defense in the league and the Colts can’t run it at all. Derek Anderson is getting the start behind center for Buffalo and, as wins and losses go, will probably be an upgrade of Josh Allen. He likely won’t make as many rookie mistakes and has won big games in Carolina before. I like Indianapolis to win, but not cover.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+10, O/U: 52)
Here’s a little fun fact for you; the last three times the Rams started the season 6-0 (1999, 2000 and 2001), they never made it to 7-0. In 1999, it was a 24-21 loss to the Tennessee Titans on the road. In 2000, it was a 54-34 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead (Kurt Warner broke his finger in that game and missed more than a month) and in 2001 it was a 34-31 loss to the New Orleans Saints at home.
Last season, in the first meeting between the 49ers and Rams, the two teams combined to score 80 points, with the Rams winning 41-39. In game two, San Francisco came out on top 34-13, but it was the final game of the season and Sean McVay didn’t play any of his starters.
The fact that the 49ers are now leading in this game – IN LAMBEAU – is a testament to Kyle Shanahan's coaching ability.
We all declared the Niners dead once Jimmy G went down, but maybe there is more life there than we thought.
— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) October 16, 2018
So what about this game? Well, I don’t see the Rams losing, but I also don’t see them covering that 10-point spread on the road against a team that’s averaged 25 points a game since starter Jimmy Garoppolo went down. This is the third consecutive road game for the Rams. They’re a little beat up on offense and kicker Greg Zeurlein is just coming back from an injury. The Rams could easily win this one 33-24 and break your hearts if you put your money on them.
