We’re coming off a bad week for our canine friends. NFL Week 7 was the worst underdog performance of the season so far, with the pups going 5-9. Needless to say, my column last week paid the price and now, like you, I’m sitting here at the midpoint of the season looking for answers.
Before you head off for your Halloween parties this weekend, take a look at the best NFL underdog picks.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3, O/U: 49.5)
There’s plenty of reasons for this spread to exist as it is. Detroit (3-3) has won its last two games and put up 31 and 32 points respectively in both contests. These were victories over decent teams too, the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins, with the Dolphins win coming on the road. This is the last Lions home game before a two-game divisional gauntlet against the Minnesota Vikings then Chicago Bears.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 8 Betting Odds
Here’s what you need to know if you’re thinking Seattle (3-3), and I certainly am. Since Pete Carroll took over the team in 2010, they’re 7-3 coming off a bye. Since 2012, Russell Wilson’s rookie season, they’re 6-2 and since Wilson’s second year in the NFL, they are the best team in the league coming off the freebie weekend at 6-1.
Damon Harrison bolstering a .@Lions defense that is ranked 30th against the run. They'll face 3 of the Top-10 rushing offenses in the NFL in their next 4 games: #Seahawks #Vikings #Bears #Panthers @gmfb @nflnetwork
— Will Selva (@WillSelvaTV) October 24, 2018
Wilson and the Seattle offense has only been held under 20 points once this season, a 24-17 loss to the Bears in Chicago. Wilson is still one of the best in the game and never wastes the extra week to prepare. This one could be close, but I like the Seahawks.
New York Jets at Chicago Beats (-7, O/U: 45)
This is a massive line for a team coming off two consecutive losses. While the Bears (3-3) offense has improved since Matt Nagy opened up the playbook for Mitchell Trubisky, the defense has taken a significant step backward, giving up 31 and 38 points over the last two weeks.
After blasting out of the gate, outside linebacker Khalil Mack has quieted down on the stat sheet. He hasn’t recorded a sack in two weeks and only three total tackles. He’s apparently dealing with an ankle injury. Chicago used Mack more in coverage against the Patriots than in the pass rush.
Halas Hall update: Khalil Mack did not practice today. Allen Robinson did not practice today.
— Dan Wiederer (@danwiederer) October 24, 2018
The Jets (3-3) have put up a ton of points in their three victories (48, 34 and 42) and scored 17 or less in their three losses. This is a team that’s gotten better every week and head coach Todd Bowles continues to show he’s one of the more underrated head men in the league. Do I think the Jets will win this game? Nope. I do think a touchdown with a down Bears defense and injured Mack is a lot to give up.
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5, O/U: 56.6)
Last week the Rams (7-0) had a massive spread over the 49ers and it scared me off them. Needless to say, they had no problem covering thanks to three touchdowns from Todd Gurley and a career day from Aaron Donald. Yet here we are again, with another gargantuan spread. And this time it’s not C.J. Beathard on the other side of it.
Nope, it’s Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (3-2-1). Here’s a fun fact, that -9.5 is the biggest underdog spread of Rodgers’ career. The Rams have scored 33-plus in six of their seven games and the coaching match up between Sean McVay and Mike McCarthy is the punchline to a joke.
Aaron Rodgers became the first player in NFL history with back-to-back games with 400+ passing yards and zero interceptions.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 16, 2018
But Rodgers is Rodgers and it would just be like the future Hall of Famer to show exactly why he deserves that gold jacket with an epic performance against the league’s best team.
