Although many bettors were shying away from the favorites last week, teasing many of them – New England, Green Bay, Jacksonville – turned out well. Let’s take a look at this week’s best teaser pick and see where we can find some good value either teasing teams up or down.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Line: Baltimore -2.5
The Browns have taken the NFL by storm with their strong play through the first four weeks of the season. The problem is that despite being in every single game they’re still 1-2-1 heading in to Week 5. The sportsbooks have responded to Cleveland’s strong play by making them just a 2.5-point underdog against the 3-1 Ravens this week.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
While the Ravens are coming off a big road win, this is a team that looks like it really learned its lesson from a road game in Cincinnati. That game was Baltimore’s only loss on the year and it came on the heels of a flat, ugly first half. That’s really been the Ravens’ only bad half so far.
The Browns are improved but Baltimore has won and covered in five straight meetings with the Browns. The Ravens are still the better team and will find a way to win.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Kansas City -3.5
The league’s top-ranked offense will clash with one of the NFL’s best defenses when Kansas City hosts Jacksonville in a potential AFC Championship game preview. The Chiefs can score points in bunches. However, they have struggled to slow down opposing offenses, which could hurt them against a good team in the Jaguars. Jacksonville owns one of the most dominant defenses in the league. If the Jaguars can slow down Patrick Mahomes and company, then Blake Bortles should be able to help keep this game close. I don’t like that Leonard Fournette is likely out here but I do like the Jags +10.5 in what should be a close game.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Pittsburgh -3.5
Speaking of close contests, the Falcons and Steelers are set to clash in what amounts to must-win games for both teams in Week 5. Atlanta blew a late lead against the Cincinnati Bengals in last week’s 37-36 loss at home, falling to 1-3 on the season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh suffered another second-half collapse in a 26-14 loss to Baltimore and is 1-2-1 through the first quarter of the year. Despite their struggles, the Steelers are still a 3.5-point favorite at home to Atlanta.
In this spot, I have more faith in the Steelers. Atlanta’s defense is a complete wreck right now. They’re 29th in PPG (30.5), are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.6% of their passes (27th) and are allowing 119.0 rushing yards per game (26th). It’s hard to see them going on the road and winning with stats like that.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Philadelphia -3
The final pick on this teaser bet belongs to the Vikings. Minnesota hasn’t won a game since Week 1, so there will be a sense of urgency as they attempt to avoid falling to 1-3-1. Expectations were high for the Vikings before the year, and there is a general sense that this team is capable of a lot more. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a tough loss to the Tennessee Titans in which they blew a 14-point lead and then allowed them to convert three fourth downs in overtime as they marched down the field for the game-winning score. The defending Super Bowl champions are still trying to figure things out on both sides of the football. They definitely haven’t look crisp offensively as they aren’t able to run the ball with any consistency. It’s hard to see that changing this week.
Add in the fact that this is a revenge game for the Vikings from the playoff loss last year and the fact that they’ve had 10 days to prepare, and we’ll expect them to at least cover 10.5 in this spot.
Four-Team Teaser: Ravens +4.5, Jaguars +10.5, Steelers +3.5, Vikings +10.5
