Is there a term for when your teaser blows up in your face so badly that it leads to lasting damage the rest of the week? My Week 7 college football teaser was my worst effort of the season. Both of my teaser picks ended up losing outright, and they weren’t close losses either. Oklahoma State and West Virginia each got blown out as a touchdown favorite, and that has me shaking my head coming into this week.
Week 1 Teaser: Loser
Week 2 Teaser: Winner
Week 3 Teaser: Winner
Week 4 Teaser: Winner
Week 5 Teaser: Loser
Week 6 Teaser: Loser
Week 7 Teaser: Loser
College Football Teaser Betting Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
7-point teaser option at -130 betting odds
Iowa -2.5 vs. Maryland
Miami (OH) +15 at Army
Since I have failed miserably in each of the last three weeks, I am putting a lot of faith in Bill Connelly’s S&P+ numbers to keep my losing streak from reaching four.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
Iowa is one of the best teams in the country. It feels weird to say that, but the numbers bear it out. Many people put them on upset alert against Indiana last week, and the Hawkeyes responded like good teams do. They blew out the Hoosiers in a game they controlled the whole way.
This is one of the best defenses in the country too. The Hawkeyes have been great in both phases of the game with a top-20 run defense and a top-15 pass defense.
If that’s the case, why is Maryland a single digit underdog in Iowa City? I think it’s because Iowa is one of those teams that people kind of forget about unless they are great or terrible. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be a double-digit favorite in this game, especially when you consider the other factors in play at Maryland. Parents are reportedly organizing to prevent DJ Durkin from coaching the team again, and that situation is sure to loom over the team the rest of the year.
There is nothing major to note in terms of injuries for the Hawkeyes, so this is just good value.
The other leg of this week’s teaser may be a bit of a head-scratcher, but I promise it will make sense. Army is just not that good of a team. Despite a 4-2 record, they are ranked 75th in the country in S&P+, and their lines are going to be inflated the rest of the year due to their performance against Oklahoma. That’s the one time most bettors will pay attention to Army outside of the Army-Navy Game, and that has greatly skewed the reality.
Army did steamroll Buffalo and San Jose State in its last two games, but this team also had trouble moving the ball against Duke and only put up 28 points on Hawai’i.
Miami of Ohio is a good team. The Redhawks have been quietly crushing MAC East opponents left and right, and their defense has been very strong against the run. They are currently 28th in the country against the run per S&P+, and they can put Army in a lot of unfavorable down and distance scenarios. If you combine that with how slow both of these offenses move, it makes a lot of sense to back the visitors getting more than two touchdowns.
