Finally … one of my college football teaser plays was a winner and we’re hoping for another with our best teaser pick for Week 9. Following three straight weeks of losing when I was getting extra points on the NCAAF betting lines, my Week 8 teaser was an easy winner. Iowa never had a problem with Maryland in the first leg of last week’s teaser, snuffing out their offense entirely in a 23-0 win. The Terps ended the game with only 115 total yards and seven first downs.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
The second leg of the teaser was a little hairier, but I was in front of the number the whole way. Miami (Ohio) did not do much on offense against Army’s defense until the fourth quarter, but then the Redhawks rallied to force overtime and almost won outright as an eight-point underdog. That made them an easy winner on the CFB betting line with the extra points.
Week 1 Teaser: Loser
Week 2 Teaser: Winner
Week 3 Teaser: Winner
Week 4 Teaser: Winner
Week 5 Teaser: Loser
Week 6 Teaser: Loser
Week 7 Teaser: Loser
Week 8 Teaser: Winner
College Football Best Teaser Pick (Odds Courtesy of BetDSI)
7-point teaser option at -130 betting odds
Wyoming +9 at Colorado State
TCU -6.5 at Kansas
One of my keys to success last week was following Bill Connelly’s S&P+ numbers, and I’m going to use that as a guide for this week’s plays too.
Wyoming was definitely going to take a step back after losing Josh Allen and getting incredibly fortunate in terms of turnovers last year. The Cowboys had far more turnover luck than any other team in 2017, and those things almost always revert to the mean the next year pretty quickly.
After going 8-5 in 2017, the Cowboys are 2-6 this year. However, the defense has been relatively solid and that has kept the team from being a total disaster. They are ranked 43rd in the country according to S&P+, while the offense is ranked 119th.
Colorado State is 3-5, but the Rams are ranked 18 spots lower than Wyoming overall per S&P+. They have largely been underwhelming with a lot of KJ Carta-Samuels’ production coming in garbage time too. This has not been a good team, and the only team they have beaten by more than one score is a really bad San Jose State squad.
I’m going against turnover luck for the second leg of my teaser too. The Kansas Jayhawks have not been an absolute dumpster fire this season. They are 2-5 and posted consecutive wins for the first time since 2011, but that doesn’t mean they have been good. The team is ranked 108th in the nation in S&P+, and they have been the luckiest team in the country.
Kansas has forced an NCAA-high 21 turnovers this year, and that has been the reason behind the Jayhawks’ better than usual performance this season. To their credit, they have limited their own turnovers, but the team isn’t really that much better than it was the last couple years under David Beaty.
Meanwhile, TCU has gotten incredibly unlucky. They have the third-worst turnover margin in the NCAA, and they have not been as bad as their 3-4 record indicates. Shawn Robinson has shown flashes in his first year as the team’s starting quarterback, and this feels like a ripe spot for a breakout game.
