As part of our weekly series, Get More Sports recently caught up with former NFL player Chris Gronkowski. Every week during the 2018 season, we’ll produce an exclusive Q&A interview with Chris, whose experience, familiarity and connections within the league, its coaches and its players allow him to provide unparalleled insight and analysis.
The information provided in this series can be incredibly valuable to any sports bettor, which is why this is must-read material every week.
In this week’s edition (NFL Preseason Week 4), Chris discusses prop bets. You can read more editions of Chris Gronkowski’s weekly Q&A here.
GMS: Looking at the top of this props sheet, which rookie quarterback is going over his projected start total and why?
Gronk: I am loving the over on Baker Mayfield. After a solid preseason for Mayfield, Tyrod Taylor is going to be on a short leash. The Browns drafted Mayfield No. 1 overall and he is the future of the Browns. If Tyrod isn’t producing early on, expect to see Mayfield sooner than later. With the line at 4.5 games, Mayfield can easily clean up the end of the season as well if the Browns aren’t going to go to the playoffs. The only way Mayfield doesn’t get five games in would be if the Browns have an amazing turnaround season and make it to the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor. This would be an unbelievable turnaround and extremely unlikely. I am taking the over all day on Baker Mayfield.
GMS: And which rookie quarterback prop would you bet the under on in terms of starts, if any?
Related: Q&A’s with Glenn Gronkowski
Gronk: I wouldn’t take the under on any of the rookie quarterbacks this year. Sam Darnold was just named the starter and the Jets traded Teddy Bridgewater to the Saints. Josh Rosen is sitting behind an extremely injury prone quarterback in Sam Bradford and could get the start at any moment. And Josh Allen in Buffalo has already locked up the starting job as well. If I had to take one of them, I would go with Rosen.
GMS: Speaking of quarterbacks fresh on the NFL scene, we haven’t seen much of Patrick Mahomes in regular season action, but what is your candid assessment of him and how he will perform in 2018?
Gronk: I haven’t seen much of Mahomes, but from the fan reactions last year and the fact that they got rid of Alex Smith shows that they are super high on this guy and that he is performing at a high level. But with any rookie, it is going to take some time for him to get comfortable and really learn the game. The Chiefs strong run game and solid defense should help Mahomes succeed.
GMS: Going back to some of the props BetDSI released this week, which is your favorite quarterback prop bet and why?
Gronk: I am surprised to see the over/under on Alex Smith set so high at 3900 yards. Alex Smith has never lit up the stat sheet with big passing numbers and he is now in his first year with a new team and a new offense. With Aaron Rodgers at 4,000 and Big Ben at 4,100 it sounds silly that Alex Smith is set at 3,900 yards. I am jumping on the under on Alex Smith.
GMS: What about the running back props, which one jumps out to you in that set?
Gronk: Running backs are a lot harder to predict. The one that jumps out at me here is Mark Ingram. With the emergence of Alvin Kamera and the fact that Ingram is suspended for four games would really make it hard for Ingram to hit 1150 rushing yards this year. I am jumping on the under all day.
GMS: And finally how about the wideout props, any projected receiver stat you would target?
Gronk: Amari Cooper is coming off a terrible season last year. I think this year will be a big bounce back year for him. He is extremely talented and I think last year was an eye opener for him. With a new coaching staff in Oakland, I think Cooper has a big year this year for Oakland.
GMS: You can get +1700 odds on a team going 0-16 or 16-0 this season. Is that going to happen?
Gronk: I wouldn’t touch this bet. It is extremely rare for a team to go 0-16 and even harder for a team to go 16-0. The Browns went 0-16 last year and have rebuilt their team and should be able to compete this year and win a decent amount of games. Every team in the NFL has great players, and any team could beat another team on any given day if everything clicks and the ball rolls the right way. The talent among teams is toogreat that any one team should never go 0-16 or 16-0 in this era.
GMS: A more in-depth question for a final one of the preseason. We always hear talk about the possibility of Alabama (or the NCAA’s best team) being able to beat the worst team in the NFL, which is just a load of bulls–t. Looking at Preseason Week 4, when a lot of teams will have their second- and third-stringers out there for the majority of the game, if you were an oddsmaker what kind of spread would you create for the Browns backups vs. the Alabama Crimson Tide?
Gronk: If I was an oddsmaker setting the line against the Browns backups vs. Alabama’s starters — I would make the Browns a 14-point favorite.
To make an NFL roster you have to be great, the guys that make an NFL roster are the best college football players from around the country. There is such a huge talent pool to pull from for an NFL team that a college team could never compete with. To be one of the 53 guys selected for an NFL roster is very hard to do and these are elite athletes whose job is to play football and get paid to do it.
Anyone that makes an NFL roster is one of the best players at the college level and this is not true for the Alabama starters. Every year only a handful of Alabama players go into the NFL and very few of them are starters immediately in the NFL. The talent level in the NFL is a significant jump, and the weak points of the crimson tide would show through immediately. Alabama would have to have 5-8 NFL caliber guys on each side of the ball to compete and beat a backup NFL team in my opinion.
The Gronkcast Episodes:
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 9: Inside The NFL: Featuring Rob Gronkowski’s bodyguard Bobby Goons
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 8: Inside The NFL: Inside A Players Life in the NFL
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 7: Inside The NFL: An Interview with WWE superstar Mojo Rawley
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 6: Inside The NFL: NFL Week 2, BulletProof Picks, NFL Head Coaches
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 5: Inside The NFL: A Day In The Life of An NFL Player, NFL Week 1
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 4: Inside The NFL: NFL Betting Strategies, The Best NFL Prop Bets
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 3: Inside The NFL: What It’s Like To Be A Rookie In The NFL
