Placing a wager on the Underdog in the NBA Playoffs
Baring a miraculous turnaround by the Boston Celtics in this years NBA Playoffs, the big stage is set for the NBA’s two finest teams, the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers. These two teams will meet in the NBA Finals for the third consecutive season, an unprecedented feat that certifies each franchise as a current supreme power of their respective conferences.
The dominance has been magnified in the 2016/17 NBA Playoffs, where the Warriors reached the Finals without being an underdog once in the postseason, and affirming the expectations by winning all the 12 playoff games. The reigning champions Cleveland almost matched them, losing just one game on their road to the NBA Finals.
The underdog teams haven’t had much success outside of the top two. Both of the NBA Conference Finals were played between top two seeded teams, and only the Utah Jazz managed to progress as a lower seed in the entire 2017 NBA Playoffs, beating the LA Clippers in seven games in a first round match-up between two teams that had the same regular season record.
The NBA Playoffs has been a good time for pro punters that were looking to bet the underdog teams for quite some time. The bookmakers usually guard themselves against the public teams and the clear favorites, willingly providing extra value to the underdog sides and it generally translates to payout.
The Warriors/Cavs dominant run was also protected against, but the more predictable runs coupled with the unbelievable winning margins has been hard to guard against, and the underdog bets would cost you dearly in the last two playoffs. Take a quick look at the data for the last three postseasons:
| Underdog ATS | East | West | Finals | Total |
| 2016/17 | 12-25-1 | 19-17 | 31-42-1 | |
| 2015/16 | 17-24 | 15-23 | 3-4 | 35-51 |
| 2014/15 | 20-16 | 22-14 | 2-4 | 44-34 |
The Underdogs in the previous years
After a good 2014/15 NBA Playoffs that saw the underdog cash in on 56.4 percent of the bets, the last two seasons were near disastrous. Placing such a wager in the 2015/16 NBA playoffs would only win you 40.7 percent of the time, and this year is barely different with 43.1 percent success ratio. The Eastern Conference series played a larger role in the big difference, but as the Playoffs progressed more, the West followed the example.
Not all the turnaround can be attributed to the dominance of these two teams, but it had played the most significant factor. The Warriors have been heavy favorites in each of the past 12 games and have covered the spread on 8 occasions, while the Cavaliers have gone 7-4-2 under the same circumstances. That’s a combined 8-15-2 for the underdog. Take this score away and the underdogs have gone 23-26 during these playoffs, not a disturbing record per se.
When these things happen, the public bettors are winning at large, leading to extreme measures we have witnessed the last couple of games. Injuries to the best players of both of the Conference Finals underdogs played a role, but having the Cavaliers as a 15-point favorite at home over Boston or the Warriors 11-point jolly in San Antonio are clearly blown up lines to safeguard against one-sided investing. It didn’t matter to the Warriors, but the Spurs have probably lost all hope after being overmatched sans Leonard in the two games in Oakland.
The mental aspect of the two teams invincibility in the seven-games series can’t be measured, but it’s clear that their opposition gave up much before it was actually over. Utah and San Antonio showed very little resistance to the Western Conference champions, while Toronto barely showed up against James and co. Portland lost by the biggest point differential of -18.0, but they at least showed up for a game or two. Not too surprisingly, the LA Clippers are among the most disappointing performers this postseason, going 2-5 ATS in that turbulent series with the Utah Jazz.
The other usual playoff underachiever, the Toronto Raptors, had matched Clippers’ success, going 3-6-1, and the Washington Wizards stayed three games below the ATS .500 with a score of 5-8. The other four losing teams have played less and fared better. The big ATS winner of the 2016/17 NBA Playoffs thus far is another high seed, but a one that got helped by playing an underdog role in the last series. The Boston Celtics overcame a poor start to go 11-6 against the spread, and they won’t have time to spoil it for their backers.
Since we are likely to face picking a side between the two almost unbeatable teams, let’s also take a closer look at what’s ahead of us.
Cavs vs. Warriors
During these NBA playoffs, the Golden State Warriors have won by an average margin of 16.3 points per contest, 4.7 points better than their season average margin of victory. If not for Leonard’s injury it would have probably been less, but it’s still an impressive number, especially considering the fact that the usual blowout customers such as the Nets or the Lakers have not been around.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have let one slip, but have been almost equally impressive during this postseason. Led by the incredible LeBron James, they won by an average of 12 points, 8.8 points better than the 2016/17 regular season average. Of course, I’ve already explained that they have mostly cruised on neutral before the NBA playoffs started. Still, it might have a role in books’ spreads for the Finals. They are the defending NBA champions after all.
Last time around, the books kept it close. The Warriors have laid points in each home game of the 2016 NBA Finals series, but were a tiny underdog all three times in Ohio, so despite the fact that they have played as the underdog just three times this entire season (including the San Antonio game where they played without any of the stars), there’s a slight chance that we’ll see the same scenario yet again. Perhaps this will help the underdog improve on the poor ATS record.
Either way, the NBA playoffs underdog is not extinct yet, but don’t let yourself be advised to take too many bets against the current rulers of the NBA, even with the ever-growing handicaps. Unfortunately, this narrows the betting opportunities by quite a lot, but we still have the over/under market to make a profit. Therefore, check out the article on the total points subject in the Basketball category of the Get More Sports website in which I have reviewed the betting success rate on the total points during the 2016/17 NBA Playoffs, while trying to track down the lost postseason defense wins philosophy.
