The Nashville Predators have still not made it past the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in their franchise’s young history.
That feat may have to wait another year, because they will be matching up with the top seed in the Western Conference, the Chicago Blackhawks.
Nashville had a pretty comfortable ride down the stretch. Too good to be caught by the Los Angeles Kings and not good enough to hang with the rest of the Central Division, they really only had to battle with the St. Louis Blues and Calgary Flames for their playoff seeding. The Blues and Flames both got hot at the right time, leaving the Preds to cruise to a berth as the second Wild Card spot.
The Blackhawks have been playing the league’s best hockey since February, plain and simple. Though they dropped the last four games of the regular season, they went 20-4-2 in February and March combined. That awesome run earned them the top spot in the West.
The last two times that the Chicago Blackhawks won their division, they went on to win the Stanley Cup.
Chicago and Nashville met in the 2014-2015 postseason. The Blackhawks won in six games, though it was a marathon series in which Nashville gave it all they had. The series opener went to double overtime, and the fourth game went to triple overtime. Chicago won both games.
Chicago is a -166 to win the series.
Let’s look at some of the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Blackhawks.
Sometimes, a categorical victory like this one goes without saying.
Patrick Kane finished second in the league in scoring with 89 points. He wound up tied with Sidney Crosby and trailed the Art Ross Trophy winner Connor McDavid by 11 points. When the Hawks went on their crazy run in February and March, he had 34 points in 26 times.
Plus, there’s Kane’s playoff record. When you have a relatively small sample size, playoff statistics are largely arbitrary in evaluating a player. But in 123 playoff games, he has 121 points and 11 game-winning goals, five of them coming in overtime. He has a 13.2% career shooting percentage in the postseason. That is incredible.
Second on the team in scoring is the Bread Man, Artemi Panarin. The young Russian proved that last season was no fluke, registering almost identical scoring numbers to last year. He finished with 74 points.
But perhaps the biggest X-factor for the team is Artem Anisimov. Anisimov has been out since March 14th with a leg injury. At the time, he had 45 points in 63 games. He will slide back into the second line centering Panarin and Kane. When the three of them are together, it is the most lethal line in hockey simply because of their incredible creativity. Each player individually can weave something out of nothing. They are a wonder to watch together.
Chicago averaged 2.93 goals-for per game this season, ninth in the league.
Just below them at 2.90 goals-for per game are the Nashville Predators. And it’s easy to see why. They are loaded with young talent. But their leading scorer is not who you would expect. Heck, if you are a fan in any other division, you may not have even heard of this guy.
Ryan Johansen? Filip Forsberg? Roman Josi? Nope.
Viktor Arvidsson.
Arvidsson finished with 31 goals and 30 assists to tie Johansen for the team lead in points. Amazing, right? In his rookie season last year, he had just eight goals and eight assists in 56 games. He got off to a good start and just kept scoring, never having a pointless drought stretch longer than four games. Arvidsson was just always a contributor.
His stepping up is big for Nashville, because they will need all hands on deck to best the Blackhawks. Arvidsson had two points in 14 games last year’s playoffs.
The problem is that the Preds have a long list of guys listed as “questionable” for Game 1. Granted, many of these players will likely play, but it still shows that they are not exactly at full strength. Roman Josi headlines the list as he grapples with a lower-body injury that has been nagging him the last week or so. Yannick Weber is also questionable on the blue line.
Among the forwards, Calle Jarnkrok, Mike Fisher, Vern Fiddler and Colin Wilson are all on the mend. That’s a long list of guys that will be running on adrenaline if they are in the lineup tonight.
Wilson was one of the Preds’ best players last postseason, setting a franchise record for playoff assists (8) and points (13).
Again, my guess is that most of them will play. But even at full strength, there’s simply no beating Kane and Company when it comes to scoring.
Defense: advantage Blackhawks.
I give the Blackhawks the edge in this department, but I just want to get out in the open that I have a massive man-crush on Roman Josi.
It’s easily justifiable. Josi has become a perennial Norris Trophy candidate. He set a Predators franchise record for points by a defenseman with 61 last year. He can play at any strength and is one of the smartest players in the NHL.
A @PredsNHL scouting report from their All-Star defenseman Roman Josi: https://t.co/vUHcyjfd4y pic.twitter.com/kgTwzCDJF5
— The Players' Tribune (@PlayersTribune) April 5, 2017
But Josi is not alone in the Predators’ d-core. They also have fan-favorite P.K. Subban. Though Subban missed a good chunk of the season due to injury, he still finished with decent numbers. Though they are not quite what management was hoping for, 40 points are 40 points. It’s clear his injury was limiting his mobility, but he truly heated up from February on.
When Subban is on, he can be a game-changer.
Ryan Ellis has also contributed this season, adding 38 points alongside Josi on the top pairing.
Chicago has the usual suspects on defense in Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Johnny Oduya and Nik Hjalmarsson. Brian Campbell and Trevor van Riemsdyk round out what is a very deep blue line.
They allow 31.4 shots per game. That puts them in the bottom third in the league. If we are going by recent history, though, Duncan Keith normally becomes an animal in the playoffs.
Plus, Chicago has won their last four against the Predators and put up 18 goals in the process.
In a vacuum, I would put Roman Josi up against any defenseman in the league. But he will have his hands full trying to lead the Predators past this particular offense. Especially if he has something hindering his ability to move in the lower-body department.
Special teams: advantage Predators.
How, with their cast of characters, are the Chicago Blackhawks the 19th best powerplay team in the NHL?
And how, with a perennial Selke candidate like Jonathan Toews, great two-way forwards like Marian Hossa and Artem Anisimov, and their rugged defensive core, do they have the 24th best penalty kill?
It’s mind boggling.
The Hawks have not had a good penalty kill since they won the President’s Trophy in 2013. Though last year’s powerplay was second-best in the NHL, they have not exactly been dominant in that category either these last few years. That’s remarkable.
And yet, against the Nashville Predators this season, they went 6-for-15.
Nashville is smack dab in the middle of the pack in both powerplay percentage and penalty kill rate. They are the definition of average. Against Chicago, they were 5-for-16 on the man advantage.
Both teams are capable of lighting the lamp on any given powerplay, despite their cumulative stats. But I give the edge to the team with the more effective penalty kill, however slight a lead that may be.
Goaltending: advantage Blackhawks.
Don’t get me wrong. I do like Pekka Rinne. I think last season clouded a lot of people’s judgment of how good he is capable of being. But Corey Crawford is the superior goaltender.
Crawford gets a lot of flak for being the man along for the ride in the Blackhawks dynasty. And with all the stars on the roster and all the surefire future Hall-of-Famers on the team it’s easy for him to fly under the radar.
But respect has to be given. He has a .920 career save percentage in the postseason, five shutouts and two Stanley Cups. He’s no slouch.
Bold Predictions:
1) Nashville will hold Chicago’s bottom six at bay- they will not score more than once.
2) Chicago will do better on the road than at home.
3) Filip Forsberg will get a hat trick in one game.
4) At least two games will go into overtime.
Prediction: Blackhawks in 6.
