The European Tour shifts to Wentworth in Surrey, England this week for the BMW PGA Championship this week. Originally known as the British PGA Championship, the BMW PGA Championship has been the flagship event of the European Tour since its inception in 1972. This year’s tournament will have a little bit of a different feel with none of the big four in the mix and Masters champion Danny Willett set to lead the field as the outright betting favorite.
Event Details
Event: BMW PGA Championship
Category: European
Date: May 26-29
Location: Wentworth (West Course), Surrey, England
Willett will look to produce a similar performance to his Masters victory in his second start since the win. Willett followed up the best moment of his entire career with a missed cut at The Players Championship and while he will head the markets leading in to this tournament he will be in tough against a veteran field that will have the edge in experience at this event.
Past Five Winners
2015: Byeong-Hun -21
2014: Rory McIlroy -14
2013: Matteo Manassero -10 (Playoff)
2012: Luke Donald -15
2011: Luke Donald -6 (Playoff)
What To Know About The Course
Wentworth is a tight, flat, tree-lined course with greens that can be tricky to read. Byeong-Hun An put on an absolute clinic off the tee a year ago when he led the field in Driving Distance and Rory McIlroy ranked third in that department when he won here in 2014 so that will be a stat to keep an eye on this weekend. In addition to hitting it further than anybody else, An also ranked first in Scrambling and Greens In Regulation so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he dominated with a final score of 21-under. Driving Distance, Accuracy and Greens In Regulation will all be very important but we won’t sleep on Putting Average as another important number to consider heading in to this week.
The Field
The notable absence of some of the European stars illustrates the fact that this isn’t the most popular of events on the schedule. Willett is the market leader at +1100 odds followed by Shane Lowry, Francesco Molinari and Russell Knox at +1600 odds. The hype surrounding Willett might have him at shorter odds than he probably should be listed at so it might make sense to fade him. Other notables include the defending champion An, Luke Donald and Rafael Cabrera Bello all listed at +2500 odds while the 2014 BMW PGA Championship winner Matteo Manassero is listed at a ridiculous +20000 odds.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Russell Knox over Danny Willettt
Willett followed up an impressive performance at The Masters with a missed cut at The Players Championship and we won’t be surprised if he stumbles again this week. The fact that he had to travel to return home for this event factored in to our decision to fade him and there is no doubt he will be forced to deal with the pressure of being in the spotlight this weekend. Meanwhile, Knox failed to make the cut at The Masters but he has rebounded with some impressive performances as he posted a runner-up finish at the RBC Heritage and then finished 19th at The Players Championship. This will be Knox’s first trip to Wentworth but we really like the value betting him to finish with a better performance than Willett this week.
Top Five Pick: Francesco Molinari
We strongly considered An here as he looks to successfully defend his title this week but we opted to go in a different direction with Molinari as a strong pick to finish inside the top-five. Molinari is coming off a top-10 finish at The Players Championship and he has been a model of consistency at this tournament with top-10 finishes in each of the last four years here. An is definitely worth consideration at pretty good odds but we like Molinari as the best bet to finish in the top-five at the BMW PGA Championship.
Top 10 Odds To Win BMW Championship
Danny Willett +1015
Russell Knox +1550
Shane Lowry +1550
Francesco Molinari +1650
Martin Kaymer +2050
Byeong Hun An +2250
Luke Donald +2250
Lee Westwood +2550
Rafael Cabrera Bello +2250
Joost Luiten +3050
