The Boise State Broncos and the Baylor Bears prepare for battle when they meet in Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona for the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl. The game is scheduled to begin on Tuesday, December 27th at 10:15 p.m. ET and can be seen on the ESPN Network. Heading into the match-up, the Broncos are a -7.5 point favorite and the contest’s total sits at 67. This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs.
Early on, it looked as if the Broncos had an outside chance at wiggling their way into the College Football Playoffs. However, all that went up in smoke when they fell in defeat to the Wyoming cowboys 30-28. Boise State did manage to win three straight contests after the loss, but finished off their 2016 campaign with another defeat to the Air Force Falcons.
Boise State (10-2):
Offensively, Boise State is entering this match-up relatively healthy for the first time since the middle of the season. That bodes well for starting quarterback Brett Rypien, who has pieced together a solid sophomore campaign. Rypien has completed 61.8 percent of his passes for 3,341 yards, 23 touchdowns and six interceptions.
The Broncos best player and x-factor is running back Jeremy McNichols. This season, he led the squad 1,663 rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns. He also averages 5.6 yards per carry. McNichols has made a name for himself in the passing game, catching 32 balls for 450 yards and four scores.
Thomas Sperbeck and Cedric Wilson are Matt Rypien’s go-to receivers when he drops back in the pocket to pass. In 2016, the duo has combined for over 120 catches for over 2,100 yards and 19 end zone grabs. Both wide outs have eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark heading into the cactus Bowl.
Defensively, Boise State has been solid in the red zone all year. The 11 man crew is ranked 29th in the nation, allowing only 22.7 points per game. Baylor will look to expose their 68th ranked rushing defense, knowing that their two leading tacklers Joe Martarano and Tanner Vallejo will be absent with injuries.
Baylor (6-6):
The Bears season went from good to bad in hurry after they won the first six games of the season under new head coach Jim Grobe. The next time they took the field they suffered a one point loss to the Longhorns and the wheels came off of the bus. As a result, Baylor found itself on the losing end of their next five contests and ended the season 500.
Starting quarterback Seth Russell has not had the best of luck with injuries. His college career has ended because of a fractured ankle. That means the Bears will call upon Zach Smith to lead them in the Cactus Bowl. Last time out in their defeat to the Mountaineers, the freshman kid-under-center completed 15 of 31 passes for 244 yards, two touchdowns and two picks.
A large dose of the running game is to be expected from the Bears in the Cactus Bowl. Shock Linwood will sit out this game to prepare or the NFL draft but his stable-mate Terence Williams actually leads the Bears in rushing. This season, Williams has totaled 945 yards and 11 scores.
Wide out KD Cannon is the athlete that has been moving the ball down the field consistently for the Baylor Bears in 2016. The talented receiver has reeled in 73 catches for 983 yards and 11 scores. Three other Baylor receivers have caught at least 30 balls and have multiple end zone appearances.
The Bears defense absolutely fell apart when they ran into the meat of their schedule six weeks ago. Since that time, they have allowed an average of 30.4 points a contest against BIG-12 foes. They are especially weak against the run, giving way to 210 yards a game (96th).
Trends and Notes:
The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Over is 4-1 in the Broncos last 5 Bowl games.
The Over is 4-1 in the Bears last 5 bowl games.
NFL players Aaron Rodgers and Tyler Lockett have been named the Cactus Bowl MVP.
West Virginia defeated Arizona State 43-42 in last year’s Cactus Bowl.
Game Prediction:
After the wild roller-coaster season Baylor endured, they come into the match-up with a chance to go out a winner. Unfortunately, their defense will need to step-it-up if they want to topple the Broncos. During the six-game losing streak, they are giving away nearly 35 points a game.
Boise State didn’t play for the Mountain West crown this season, but beat some pretty good teams along the way. With a solid quarterback and underrated running back, Boise State should find plenty of points against a porous Bears defense.
The real question in this contest is can the Bears put up enough points to keep up with the Broncos. Considering Boise State is missing their two best tacklers and their defense hasn’t been consistent against the run, I’d say yes, they will score.
Even through the spiral downward, the Bears manage to put up between 24-34 points a game. That’s enough to help Boise State hit the over 67. Play the Broncos vs Bears over and see if the Bears can keep this close enough to cover the +10.
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