The 1-4 BYU Cougars will look to salvage their season when they face-off against the Boise State Broncos at home on Friday night in Salt Lake. The game is slated to start on Friday, October 6th at 10:15 p.m. EST and can be seen on ESPN. The Broncos come into this match-up as -8 point road favorites and Las Vegas also has the contest’s total at a lowly 44 points.
The Boise State Broncos took it on the chin last Thursday 42-23 at home last week against the Virginia Cavaliers. The Broncos rarely find themselves on the losing end of a game on the Smurf turf in Boise. Now, the Broncos are 2-2 on the season and are 2-2 against the spread.
The BYU Cougars also found themselves on the losing end of things when they played their in-state rivals the Utah State Aggies. In that game, the Cougars defense held up their end of the bargain. Unfortunately, you would have never known it on the scoreboard. BYU served up four interceptions and also lost three fumbles in their 40-24 defeat to the Aggies. Overall, BYU has played a tough schedule and this game on Friday may be their chance to grab a win until later in the season.
The Boise State Broncos hold a 5-2 advantage over the BYU Cougars in the all-time series. Including, a 28-27 home triumph in their last matchup on October 20th of last year. Both teams are coming off unexpected losses and should be highly motivated for this Friday night match-up.
Boise State Broncos (2-2)
The Boise State Broncos were steamrolled by the Virginia Cavaliers Thursday. As a result, they fall back to the .500 mark on the season. As a matter of fact, the loss to the Cavaliers was Boise State’s worst home loss since 2001. The Broncos now look to get back on track as they are on the road for this non-conference game.
Quarterback Brett Rypien protected the ball last week against Virginia but couldn’t find a way to get the ball into the end zone. Rypien was 24/42 for 285 yards and one interception. Truthfully, the Broncos offense did not provide much support all together as they had no running back rush over 25 yards and had one fumble.
Throughout their 2017 campaign, the Broncos have consistently failed to provide a running attack to compliment their passing game. As seen above, that was the case once again against Virginia. Amazingly, Boise State’s leading rusher is their backup quarterback Montell Cozart. Cozart has 191 yards and two scores on the ground.
Running backs Alexander Mattison and Ryan Wolpin have to step up their game or this could be a long day against a good BYU front seven. Both have 40 carries that combine for under 300 yards and three touchdowns. Apparently, Broncos fans will have to wait for the next big running back to emerge in Boise.
Even though the Broncos are a one-dimensional offense, wide receiver Cedrick Wilson is becoming a star. So far, Wilson has nabbed 29 balls for almost 500 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Jake Roh can be effective in the red zone, catching 11 passes for three scores. No matter who is under center for the Broncos, they must find more ways to get the ball to these two play-makers.
Even though the Broncos’ defense was shredded by the Cavaliers, their numbers are still pretty respectable. Overall, they rank 30th in the country by allowing 115 yards per game and 44th in total yards (346.8). They have to shore up their passing defense but BYU doesn’t pose that much of a threat in that department.
BYU Cougars (1-4)
The BYU Cougars started the year with a victory but things have gone downhill since. Now, they have lost four straight contests and are on the verge of a meltdown. Last week, the Cougars were beaten by Utah State mainly due to their own mistakes. BYU led 21-7 a minute and a half into the second quarter before giving up 33 unanswered points because of seven turnovers. Ouch.
BYU Quarterback Koy Detmer Jr. stepped in for injured starter Beau Hoge and things went from bad to worse. Actually, Hoge was on the right track, connecting on five of nine passes for 95 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. Then, Detmer took over and went seven of 20 with no scores and three interceptions of his own. Hoge is listed as questionable coming into this game against Boise State.
Running back Ula Tolutau shared carries with tailback Squally Canada and produced immediately. Overall, he ran the ball 21 times for just over 100 yards but didn’t score. Backfield mate Canada also toted the rock another 12 times for 69 yards but also failed to cross the goal line.
Don’t even get me started on the BYU wide receiving corps. Their numbers aren’t really good enough to even throw into this article. I will tell you this, Matt Bushman is the leading pass catcher for the Cougars. So far he has caught 16 passes for just over 180 yards and no scores.
Defensively, the BYU Cougars are doing their part to at least be at the .500 mark. Altogether, the Cougars defense allows only 381 yards per game (68th). That isn’t bad considering they are on the field for most of the time. The secondary is especially stout, ranking 52nd in the country, allowing 212 yards per game.
Prediction
The odds gurus that set the line at -8 for the Boise State Broncos obviously feel that there won’t be a bounce-back performance for the BYU Cougars. Look, their 1-4 and are truly on the ropes heading into this game against the Broncos. Even still, I’m not sure I agree with the -8 point line with the Broncos as such an obvious favorite here.
Here is why. The BYU defense did its job against the Utah State offense last week. It was the overwhelming amount of turnovers that were the culprit for the loss to the Aggies. I think that the Cougars can truly limit the number of points that the Boise State Broncos can score on them. The Broncos can’t run the football against anybody so far, and that is not going to change in Salt Lake.
It’s also hard for me to believe that the Cougars will suffer a game where they turn the ball over that many times back-to-back. I get that there was some chaos under center, but I’m sure the coaching staff will figure a lot of that out by game time.
Very few things motivate a team like necessity and this one is an absolute must win for BYU. For that rea, on I think the play here is to take BYU and the eight points. Again, the 44 over/under could go either way so I’ll suggest staying away from what could be a 17-14 affair. Just go with the Cougars at home to keep this ballgame close. #moneytreesgrow
Trends
The Broncos are 1-4 ATS all-time versus Independents.
The Broncos are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
The Over is 8-1 in the Broncos last nine Friday games.
The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
The Under is 10-2 in the Cougars last 12 non-conference games.
