Offense meets defense when the Fresno State Bulldogs (12-5, 2-2 MWC) welcome the Boise State Broncos (13-3, 3-1 MWC) to Save Mart Center. The game starts at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 9, 2018, and will air on ESPNU.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 141 points with Fresno State set as a 3-point favorite.
Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Prediction
In the Broncos’ last matchup, they were defeated by the Wyoming Cowboys, 79-78. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Wyoming’s biggest advantages. They made 32 trips to the line, while Boise State went 27 times. Chandler Hutchison led Boise State in scoring with 27 points on 6-for-19 shooting.
The Bulldogs won a close one over the Colorado State Rams in their last contest, 82-79. The Bulldogs had a solid free throw rate of 0.302 (above their season average of 0.274) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (31.8 vs. 30.2). Deshon Taylor was the top scorer from either team with 22 points on 6-for-14 shooting.
This matchup pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Fresno State ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and Boise State ranks 14th in defensive efficiency.
Boise State holds records of 13-3 straight up (SU) and 9-6 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Broncos games, with 8 overs compared to 7 unders.
Fresno State has an excellent 12-5 SU record, but they are just 5-8 ATS. Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Bulldogs are involved, as nine of their 15 games have gone over the O/U total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Hutchison (23.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.6 steals) has been stellar for the Broncos while Taylor (19.0 points, 3.4 assists and 2.2 steals) has contributed greatly to the Bulldogs.
After the Bulldogs won both contests against the Broncos last season, these teams will clash for the first time this year. In the last game, Fresno State won 74-67. Fresno State had a much better turnover percentage (12.1 vs. 20.9). Boise State, on the other hand, did a great job of making free throws (14-20; 70.0 percent).
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Fresno State, ATS Winner – Boise State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Boise State is 3-4 ATS with 4 overs and 3 unders.
At home, Fresno State is 2-4 ATS with 3 overs and 3 unders.
Boise State ranks 34th in three pointers attempted per game (26.3) while Fresno State ranks 216th (18.4).
The Broncos rank 16th in rebounds per game (40.9) while the Bulldogs rank 145th (35.4).
Fresno State ranks 20th in steals allowed per game (5.0) while Boise State ranks 65th (5.9).
The Bulldogs rank 42nd in assists allowed per game (11.5) while the Broncos rank 56th (11.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Boise State is 3-2 ATS with 5 overs.
Fresno State is 0-4 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Broncos’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.0, down from 13.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bulldogs have scored an average of 78.0 points per game (1.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 71.0 points per game (3.1 above their season average).
