It will be a battle between MWC opponents when the San Diego State Aztecs (17-10, 9-7 MWC) welcome the Boise State Broncos (22-6, 12-4 MWC) to Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl. The game can be seen on CBS Sports Network at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 27, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 142 points with San Diego State set as a 3-point favorite.
Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs Betting Prediction
In the Broncos’ last outing, they blew out the Colorado State Rams, 87-54. The Broncos, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.4, had a phenomenal mark of 47.4 and held the Rams to an effective field goal percentage of 0.321 (below their season average of 0.476). Boise State rallied around Chandler Hutchison, who was the top scorer from either team with 27 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
The Aztecs beat the San Jose State Spartans in their last outing, 71-59. San Diego State’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over San Jose State. The Aztecs had a rate of 12.1 (better than their season average of 15.0), while the Spartans posted a mark of 19.4. Jalen McDaniels was San Diego State’s high scorer with 16 points on 3-for-7 shooting.
Points could be at a premium in this showdown between a pair of the nation’s best defenses. San Diego State currently ranks 36th in defensive efficiency (97.6) and Boise State is 17th (95.5).
Boise State heads into the contest with records of 22-6 straight up (SU) and 15-12 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total high when the Broncos are involved, as 16 of their 27 games have gone under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, San Diego State owns records of 17-10 SU and 15-10 ATS. In opposition of Boise State, games involving the Aztecs have gone over the projected point total 52.0 percent of the time.
Christian Sengfelder has averaged 15.4 points and 7.2 rebounds over the last five games for Boise State.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Hutchison scored a game-high 44 points and the Broncos beat the Aztecs 83-80 but could not cover as 4-point favorites. He also recorded eight rebounds. The game finished with a total of 163 points, which was 19 points above the projected point total of 144 points. The Broncos knocked down 13 of their 16 free throws (81.3 percent) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.686 vs. 0.538).
Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs ATS Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Boise State, ATS Winner – Boise State, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Boise State is 7-6 ATS on the road with 9 unders and 4 overs.
San Diego State is 9-2 ATS at home with 7 unders and 4 overs.
Boise State averages 25.3 three pointers per game, which ranks 47th in the nation. San Diego State ranks 218th in three pointers allowed per game (23.6).
The Broncos rank 13th in rebounds allowed per game (30.5) while the Aztecs rank 64th (32.8).
Boise State ranks 152nd in assists per game (13.5) while San Diego State ranks 171st in assists allowed per game (13.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Boise State is 3-2 ATS with 5 unders.
San Diego State is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Broncos’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.6, down from 10.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Aztecs have scored an average of 75.4 points per game (2.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 66.2 points per game (1.8 below their season average).
