The 18th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs look to defend their eight-game winning streak when they host the Boise State Broncos at Qualcomm Stadium. The Mountain West showdown is set to go down on Saturday, October 14th at 10:30 p.m. EST. The conference match-up can also be seen on the CBSC Sports Network. As of now, Las Vegas has the Aztecs as a -6.5 favorite and the contest’s total at 46.
The Boise State Broncos are coming off a decisive 24-7 victory over the lowly BYU Cougars in Provo. In that game, the Broncos used their defense to stymie the unproductive offense of the Cougars. As a result, the Broncos climbed back over the .500 mark and sit 3-2 on the season.
The San Diego State Aztecs have been mired in close games since their destruction of the FCS’s UC Davis on opening day. In fact, they only defeated their next four teams by a 5.8 point average. All that changed last week when San Diego State rolled over UNLV 41-10 in Sin City.
The last time these two schools faced-off, it was the Broncos that came out on top 38-29 in Boise. Then again, that was back in November of 2014 and a whole lot has changed since then.
Boise State Broncos (3-2)
The Boise State defense looked a lot better against BYU but who hasn’t this year. The Cougars offense is one of the worst in Division I football. The Broncos performance last week needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Either way, the offense has looked lethargic and is far from the potent unit that they have put out on the field over the last decade.
Quarterback Brett Rypien has a topsy-turvy campaign in 2017. Partly due to injuries and partly because the Broncos lack the rushing attack they have had in the past. Also, backup quarterback Montell Cozart is the running game’s main threat. So the choice to go with Rypien over him comes at an expensive price. Obviously, Rypien is the better passer of the two but his numbers surely don’t reflect that. This year, Rypien has completed 56 passes for 646 yards with one touchdown and three picks.
On the other hand, Montell Cozart has performed well in his place. The senior quarterback has completed 38 balls for 433 yards. More importantly, he has six touchdown tosses and only one interception. Cozart also is a major threat to use his legs. He has scrambled for 207 yards on 40 carries and two more trips to the end zone. Apparently, somebody isn’t getting the memo that Cozart might be the better option going forward in 2017.
There just hasn’t been any production from the Boise State rushing game. That has to be a major concern for head coach Bryan Harsin going forward. Alexander Madison has been their only option, rushing for only 284 yards on 69 carries and four scores. Montell Cozart sits second but still has seen more time on the sidelines than on the field since Brett Rypien has returned to the line-up.
No matter who is under-center, Boise State needs to find a way to get Cedric Wilson the football. This kid is as talented as it gets but somehow the Broncos can’t find a way to get him the football on a regular basis. As to date, the wideout has reeled in 32 balls for 528 yards with three trips to the end zone. Tight end Jake Roh is a red zone threat catching three touchdowns for another 121 yards.
The Broncos defense has been really good against the run throughout their first five games of the year. The front seven ranks 19th in the country, allowing only 105 yards a game. With that being said, they will be facing their toughest test of the season. The Aztecs’ Rashaad Penny is one of the country’s best tailbacks.
(18) San Diego State (6-0)
Finally, the Aztecs put a 60-minute effort in against the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels and it showed on the scoreboard. The offense did what they do best and imposed their will in the running game. Three different running backs found the end zone including quarterback Christian Chapman. As a team, they rushed for just over 300 yards on 46 carries.
Once again, stellar running back Rashaad Penny showed why he is one of the nation’s premier tailbacks. Penny toted the pigskin 27 times for 170 yards and two trips to pay-dirt. It has become crystal clear to Aztec fans that the running game hasn’t missed a beat since the departure of their all-time leading rusher D.J. Pumphrey.
Rashaad Penny has been lights-out in 2017, rushing for 993 yards on 143 carries and nine touchdowns. Furthermore, he runs for almost seven yards every time he touches the ball. He also sits second in the nation in rushing behind Stanford’s Bryce Love (1,240 yards).
Mikah Holder and Kahale Warring make the best of things when called upon to move the chains through the air. Holder leads the club with 22 receptions and 301 yards. Unfortunately, he has yet to make his way into the back of the end zone. Warring has 185 yards on 13 catches but has netted two scores. Rashaad Penny sits third, nabbing another 16 balls for 127 yards and two more touchdowns.
The Aztecs’ defense sits in the top 30 in three of college football’s four major categories. They are solid in the front half as well as the back. The secondary allows only 185 yards through the air (25th). San Diego State is also surrendering only 19 points a game (30th). Clearly, a stingy defense and a great ground game are the secrets to San Diego State’s success.
Prediction
Oddsmakers came out on Monday with the Aztecs as a 7.5 point favorite. The betting public felt like that was a little too much and have now brought that number under a touchdown (6.5). In a way, I can see where they are coming from. San Diego State hasn’t exactly been dominant in a majority of their wins. Also, the Broncos looked pretty well last week, albeit was against BYU. Either way, I believe the line here has to take a back seat to this total.
The over/under is where I suggest my readers make their play in this conference battle. Hopefully, Boise State wises up and utilizes Montell Cozart’s skill set against the Aztec’s. If so, it will help balance out the Broncos offense with some much-needed ground production. If that’s the case, I think Cedric Wilson will be a major factor and the combination of the two will produce points.
Boise State’s defense looks decent on paper but stiffening up against a New Mexico squad who was in a quarterback transition and baffling the Cougars sure helped those numbers. Overall, they are yielding 24 points per game and I can’t foresee the Aztecs not getting to that mark.
In all honesty, I can’t see why San Diego State won’t get at least 28 at home. For these reasons, I suggest playing the over 46 in this Mountain West duel. Both teams should manage to score in the 20’s if not one of them in the low 30’s. Combined, that will be plenty of enough points to hit that mark. Head on over to HERE to make your play on this late night game is Southern California. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.
The Broncos are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
The Over is 14-6 in the Broncos last 20 games overall.
The Aztecs are 18-6-2 in their last 26 conference games.
The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Under is 5-2-1 in the Aztecs last eight games overall.
The Underdog is 4-0 in their last four meetings.
