In this article, we have prepared for you an in-depth analysis of the Round 11 matchup that will take place on Saturday in Dortmund between hosts, BVB and their guest, Bayern Munich.
104th “Der Klassiker” is on the menu and I’m sure that every soccer fan in the world waits for this matchup with great anticipation. Biggest derby in German soccer will take place at Signal Iduna Park as a Saturday’s closing duel in round 11 of German Bundesliga. Borussia Dortmund is coming off from the second defeat of the season that occurred in Hannover (2:4) as the quality of their performances is declining lately.
The defending champion on the other side, Bayern Munich, is on the rise since Carlo Ancelotti stepped down forcing Jupp Heynckes to take the helm and they are coming off from a strong 2:0 home win over RB Leipzig. Two most famous German teams are locking horns and we’ll definitely not going to miss the chance to get some money out of it with a couple of well-thought picks so let’s take a closer look.
Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich
Three-Way: 1: Dortmund +254; X: +305 Draw; 2: Bayern Munich +120 at BetDSI Sportsbook
Spread +0.5: Dortmund -115; Bayern Munich +110
Total +3.5: Over +125; Under -128
DORTMUND
The Yellow-Blacks from Dortmund have entered the period of bad performances which already cost the team the lead spot in the league table. Three rounds ago, Borussia ranked at the top of the Bundesliga caravan but then duel against RB Leipzig occurred, and injury-infested squad recorded its’ first loss of the season (2:3 at home). Next flop occurred in Frankfurt when the team dropped the two-goal advantage to finish the game with a draw (2:2) while last week’s meltdown in Hannover (2:4 loss) will not be remembered by anything good. Final slap to the fans’ faces came on Wednesday when the team couldn’t record a home win over Cyprian side APOEL in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League thus losing any chance of advancing to the next round.
They are currently ranked at No.2 spot in Bundesliga table with 20 points in 10 matches, three less than the leader and their next opponent Bayern Munich. Team posses 6-2-2 record (3-0-1 at home) and their goal difference is 27-11 (15-4 at home). 80% of Dortmund’s overall matches had over 2.5 goals in total while 75% of their home games had over 4.5 goals in total. 40% of those games had over 2.5 goals in total at half-time and both teams scored in every second overall duel. They’ve managed to score at least one goal in both halves in every single home game while they’ve managed to concede at least one goal in both halves in 20% of their games.
The scheme that coach Bosz prefers is 4-1-2-3 with Barta Sokratis, Zagadou and Schmelzer in the defensive line and Sahin in front of them operating as a defensive midfielder. Goetze and Castro have mostly midfielder assignments while Pulisic, Aubamayenag and Yarmolenko operate up front. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang tops the team and the league in scoring with 10 goals while Maximilian Philipp has two in his account. Mahmoud Dahoud collected team-high three assists while passing segment belongs to defenders Sokratis with 669 and Omer Toprak with 571 total passes. Goalkeeper Roman Burki has 85 shots against, 29 saves and five games with a clean sheet. He is also the most undisciplined player in the team with two yellow cards so far while Sokratis and Dan-Axel Zagadou have one red card each.
Zagadou is suspended for the next match after that sent-off in Hannover last weekend while Lukasz Pisczcek (knee) and Hendrik Bonmann (knee) are expected to be back later this month. Marco Reus (cruciate ligament) will be absent until late March and his season might even be over while Sebastian Rode’s (groin) and Eric Durm’s (hip) status is unknown. Mahmoud Dahoud (neck) is listed as day to day.
BAYERN MUNICH
Two draws in Bundesliga and a road loss in UEFA Champions League were enough for Bayern’s board to part ways with Carlo Ancelotti and since then, Munich is recording only victories. Jupp Heynckes started his second tenure at the helm of the most famous German team with four wins but his biggest test so far will come on Saturday when they’ll face their biggest foe in the country. The defending champions will be in a search of 46th overall victory against Dortmund in all competitions which could be used as a big boost of confidence for the squad that was a bit shaken after that 3:0 loss by Paris St. Germain in the Champions League couple weeks ago.
They’ve reclaimed the top of the league table last weekend and now they have 23 points after 10 games and a 7-2-1 record (3-1-1 on the road). They score 2.40 and concede 0.70 goals per match (24-7 goal difference) and 60% of their overall duels had over 2.5 goals in total. Bayern also managed to score in each of their last seven matches and they were leading at halftime in 70% of their games. They’ve also scored the opening goal in 90% of those showdowns while 86% of Bayern Munich’s conceded goals occurred in the second half. The team scored at least one goal in both halves in 40% of their away games and they’ve managed to concede at least one goal in both halves in 20% of those duels while both teams scored in only 30% of their matchups.
Coach Heynckes prefers the 4-2-3-1 scheme that has been very fruitful since his arrival. Usual starters are Alaba, Hummels, Boateng and Kimmich as defenders and Martinez and Rudy as defensive midfielders. Rodriguez, Alcantara, and Robben usually operate in the middle of the field providing the assistance for centre-forward Robert Lewandowski. Lewandowski is also the team’s leading scorer with ten goals (tied 1st in the league) while Arjen Robben, James Rodriguez and Corentin Tolisso have two each in their accounts. Thomas Muller and Joshua Kimmich are the top assisters with four and three while passing segment belongs to defender Mats Hummels with 660 total passes recorded. Goalkeepers Manuel Neuer and Sven Ulreich have 86 shots against, 23 saves and six games with clean sheet combined while Arturo Vidal presents the most undisciplined player on the team with three yellow cards so far.
Franck Ribery (knee) should be back during the next month while Manuel Neuer’s (broken foot) timetable for return is set for late April next year. Kingsley Coman’s (Achilles tendon) and Jerome Boateng’s (muscle) status is unknown while Robert Lewandowski (thigh) is listed as day to day. Thomas Muller (thigh) and Juan Bernat (ankle) are back in training.
Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich – Match Prediction
As aforementioned, this will be the 104th Der Klassiker ( the duel between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund) ever and Munich team holds the upper hand for now with 45 wins oppose to 28 wins by Dortmund while 30 matchups ended with a draw. In Bundesliga, Bayern also holds the edge with 42 wins opposed to 24 by Borussia while 29 games ended with points being split. Last season, home teams recorded wins (4:1 in Munich and 1:0 in Dortmund) but I’m not sure that it will be the case this time. Borussia’s form is declining while Bayern’s form rises and everything suggests that the Munich’s team can snatch a victory here. Still, there is no better chance to turn the corner than with a win over your biggest rival and I’m sure that Dortmund will enter the game with this mindset. My best guess here is under 3.5 goals in total because I’m expecting a very tough game with not many goals scored.
My pick: Under 3.5 goals
