Unlike most other match-ups in the final round of German Bundesliga, the clash that will take place at the Signal Iduna Park on Saturday between Borussia Dortmund and SV Werder Bremen actually has the result imperative for both teams, meaning that we should look for a very exciting game and judging by both teams recent form, a bunch of goals scored.
Borussia needs a win to secure the Champions League spot while Werder still has a shot of the Europa League berth if they can take full prey and if some other results get in line. Money-making in-depth analysis is ready so let’s take a closer look.
BORUSSIA DORTMUND vs. SV WERDER BREMEN
3-Way: 1: Borussia Dortmund -400; X: +719 Draw; SV Werder Bremen +1100
Spread -2.5: Borussia Dortmund +145; SV Werder Bremen -137
Total +3.5: Over -135; Under +195
BORUSSIA DORTMUND
The team with the best fans in the German Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund has had a pretty successful season so far and if they manage to secure the No. 3 spot in the league table that leads to the CL play next season, I don’t think that there will be many unsatisfied fans in Dortmund.
Team has also defeated their biggest rivals, Bayern Munich couple of weeks ago in the semifinal game of the DFB Pokal (German Cup competition) and second important title in Germany (after the league) is smiling to the Yellow and Blacks as they will face Eintracht Frankfurt in the final game in Berlin on May 27th.
Currently, “Die Shwarzgelben” rank third in the German Bundesliga table with 61 points in 33 games, the same number of points but better goal difference than their only contender for the CL spot, Hoffenheim. If they win, CL berth will be secured and that should be a motive enough. They are 4-3-1 in last eight games and they are 3-1-0 in last four home matches. Overall record at home is 12-4-0 with 37-9 goal difference (68-37 overall) and they rank second in the home league table with 40 of 48 possible points earned (76% of their total points).
Dortmund is also undefeated in their last 26 home matches and only 24% of their total goals conceded happened in front of their own crowd. Borussia scores 2.31 and concedes only 0.56 goals at home this season (2.06-1.12 overall) and 56% of their home matches had over 2.5 goals in total. Almost every third home game had over 3.5 goals (31%) while almost every fifth home match had over 4.5 goals in total (19%). 12% of those games had over 2.5 goals at the halftime and both teams scored in every second match-up at Signal Iduna Park. They haven’t conceded in both halves at home yet and they’ve managed to score at least one goal in both halves in 56% of the home games. Most common result at home was 1:0 win (occurred three times) and most common score at the halftime was 1:0 lead (occurred nine times).
Striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang tops the team in scoring with 29 goals (second in the German Bundesliga) while Ousmane Dembele and Raphael Guerreiro have six each in their accounts. Dembele is also the teams leading assister with 11 assists while the passing segment belongs to the defender Matthias Ginter with 1772 total passes. Goalies Roman Burki (26 appearances) and Roman Weidenfeller (seven appearances) collected 80 saves along with nine games with clean sheets combined.
Julian Weigl (Ankle, Thigh), Andre Schurrle (Achilles tendon), Jacob Larsen (Broken foot) and Mario Goetze (Thigh, Illness) are all out for the season while Nuri Sahin (Ankle) is listed as doubtful.
SV WERDER BREMEN
The SV Werder Bremen’s furious streak that started at the beginning of the month of February during which they recorded nine wins in 11 matches (also undefeated) has unfortunately came to an end after the team suffered two consecutive losses in the last two rounds (4:3 at Koln, 3:5 vs. Hoffenheim). Nevertheless, the team’s goal scoring efficiency has not yet come into question as they have been averaging almost three goals scored per match in last two months.
This spell of great performances in the German Bundesliga, also had the very positive effect on the team’s league table position making the team a contender for one of the Europa league spots after initial projection that the team will be fighting for survival. Currently, they rank eighth in the German Bundesliga with 45 points in 33 games and if they manage to outscore Borussia on Saturday and if Koln and Freiburg don’t record victories, the green and whites will snatch the No. 6 spot and secure Europa league berth. Lots of ifs, but definitely a motive enough.
Team is 5-1-2 in the last eight games and they are 2-1-1 in the last four road games. Overall record at home is 5-5-6 with 30-36 goal difference (58-60 overall) and they rank fifth in the road league table with 20 of 48 possible points earned. Werder scores 1.88 and concedes 2.25 goals per match (1.76-1.82 overall) including at least one goal scored in each of their last 15 away matches. They’ve also managed to score at least one goal in each of their last 13 overall games and they represent one of the few teams in Germany that have scored more goals on the road than at home soil.
Three of four Bremen’s away games had over 2.5 goals while 69% of their road matches had over 3.5 goals in total. 38% of those clashes had over 4.5 goals while almost every third game on the road (31%) had over 2.5 goals at the halftime. Both teams scored in 81% of Werder’s visiting games while they managed to score at least one goal in both halves in every fourth road game. Most common result on the road is a 2:2 draw (occurred three times) while most common score at the halftime was 1:0 trail (occurred four times).
Max Kruse and Serge Gnabry top the team in scoring with 14 and 11 goals while Fin Bartels and Zlatko Junuzovic represent the team’s best assisters with seven each. Passing segment belongs to Niklas Moisander with 980 total passes while goalies Felix Wiedwald and Jaroslav Drobny collected 116 total passes along with 6 clean sheets games combined.
Robert Bauer (yellow cards) is suspended for the final round while Justin Eilers (cruciate ligament), Luca Caldirola (Broken Foot), Eric Oelschlagel (Elbow) and Clemens Fritz (Ankle) are all out for the season. Aron Johannsson (Ankle) and Claudio Pizzaro (Muscle) are listed as doubtful while Santiagi Garcia’s (unknown), Ousman Manneh’s (Muscle), Johannes Eggstein (Foot) and Izet Hajrovic’s (cruciate ligament) statuses are unknown.
Borussia Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen – Match Prediction
High-scoring spectacle could take place in Dortmund on Saturday and that’s exactly where we should go with our betting advices. Over 3.5 goals and a very possible win for the home team would be mine safe bet.
My pick: Over 3.5 goals (-132)
Additional Pick: Borussia Dortmund
