The first game to open Week 4 of the 2017/18 NBA season is a clash between the visiting Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks. Two teams fought some playoff battles in recent history, but find themselves on completely different sides of the standings coming into this game. The Hawks will try to play a spoiler’s role at home, while the Celtics want to continue rolling.
Celtics at Hawks
Spread: Boston -8.5 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 205 points (-110)
The Celtics make a big comeback, down Thunder in OKC
The Boston Celtics are in Orlando on Sunday, where they’ll face the Magic as the Eastern Conference leader and the winner of NBA-best 7 consecutive games. They are the only team in the league yet to lose for the third time but haven’t been dominant enough to underestimate the opposition, thus playing both sides of the court every night.
The most recent victory was on Friday, in Oklahoma City, where the Boston Celtics overcame poor first half to turn the score around and win 101-94 over the Thunder. The Celtics have been successful in figuring out an opponent and feisty enough to pull themselves back in games before, but they did get a helping hand from the Thunder, who thought they’ll done the job before it was truly completed. In the first half, the Thunder looked like a well-oiled machine that just overpowered the Celtics at every turn. The Celtics could’ve quit after trailing by 18 at the break, but they knew that they can’t play as bad of two quarters as they did. Instead, led by Irving and Horford, the Celtics erased almost the entire deficit in the third quarter alone and rode this momentum to a statement victory. The help they got from the Thunder was at the defensive end. After keeping the ball in front of their shifting defense, the Thunder suddenly allowed deep penetration. Irving, who had been taking tough jumpers up to that point, and scored only 3 points before the intermission, came alive to finish with 25 points. Horford frustrated the concentrated defense with his ability to pop out and stretch out, hitting all four threes – two of which came at really crucial junctions late in the game – and finishing with 20 points. Another big factor in the third-quarter push was Marcus Morris, making his season debut. He scored seven of his nine points in the quarter. Combining all four quarters, the Celtics shot 43 percent from the field and 46.4 percent from beyond the arc. They only hit 16-of-24 free throws, but most of the guilt comes from 3-8 Jaylen Brown, who couldn’t hit almost anything in OKC.
Marcus Morris came in of the bench, but it’s not clear if Stevens wants it like this in the future or he just needs some conditioning time. Either way, the Celtics played 10 guys in this one, and the added depth will surely be beneficial in this back-to-back set.
Place: Philips Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Date/Time: Monday, November 6th, 2017. 7:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: FSSN, TSN2
Atlanta losing streak extended to eight by a Houston barrage of triples
Losing is like a quicksand for bad teams, and none can testify better of it than the Atlanta Hawks, who lost eight games in a row. They haven’t been blowouts but it doesn’t matter. It becomes a normality, almost like a habit, and even when they play a solid game, they have a bad luck, bad calls or an opponent who plays near their best level. And some days, like on Friday against Houston, a bad team like Hawks simply doesn’t stand a chance.
James Harden led all scorers with 29 points as the Rockets won over the Hawks 119-104. It wasn’t close as the result may suggest – the Rockets did all work in three quarters and led by as much as 30 before slowing down in the garbage time. The Hawks couldn’t sustain Rockets bombing, making a comeback push only once, after an early 20-10 Houston lead. The rest of the time, they looked like they would just want to get this over with. On defense, they took the easy way out of the most screens, forcing awkward switches that Rockets masterfully exploited. On offense, they let Schroder play one on five, and only started taking some responsibility after he flamed out. Six players scored in low tens, as the Hawks shot 48 percent. They were undone by a high number of turnovers and a low percentage of their deep shots early in the game (they did hit several when the game was decided to up their rate to 33 percent). Rookie John Collins was once again a bright spot with eight points, 13 rebounds and four blocks. Belinelli is slumping, playing scoreless 18 minutes. There are reports that he’s playing through an Achilles injury. This may have affected his ability to get to certain spots on the court that he’d like, but the decline in shooting percentage has also everything to do with a high degree of difficulty of the shots he takes.
The Hawks are dealing with a number of injuries, playing without Ilyasova and Delaney, but the main issue for their lack of depth is not the medical report, but the poorly assembled roster.
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics Game Trends & Prediction
The Celtics continue to be ignored as legitimate. They have not only won seven in a row, but they’ve also covered each time. Together with the cover on the opening night when Hayward suffered the season-ending injury, they are now 8-1 against the spread and a perfect 5-0 away from home. They have been favored to win just one of those 5 games, by a single point over the Whiteside-less Miami Heat. While the market tries to adjust, the Celtics have found way to improve, and the continuous return on investment originate from there. They are more of a under team, limiting seven opponents during the win streak to a maximum of 94 points. However, the window is closing here, as the lines have been set in 190s twice in the last three games. For the season, Boston is 6-3 against the over/under.
The Atlanta Hawks failed to cover the spread in the last three games, and they get a chance to end this streak before playing this game with a good performance in Cleveland. Considering how eager the Cavs and James are to right the ship, this doesn’t seem likely. Currently, they have a 2-6-1 ATS record, so even if they surprise us, it’s still not a good team to bet on. On the total points market, the Hawks games are on a three-time over streak (not counting the Cavs game), after the season started with predominant minus points. Overall, Atlanta is 4-4 against the over/under, 2-1 at home.
Admi-Rank: The Celtics are the highest ranked team in the East right now, and the second-best in the entire NBA. On the other side of the spectrum, the Hawks are second-worst and continue to slowly slide even further.
Both teams play on the back to back, so make sure that you check on any new injuries that may change the balance of power. As of now, the Celtics look much the better team than their Monday hosts.
The books agree. They’ve set an early 8.5-point spread with the away team favored to win, but it’s still giving up the value on their side. My fair number is 9.5, so if you aren’t scared of big away jollies, go ahead. There’s no value on the total points whatsoever, as the line is set almost perfectly to 205.
My Pick: Boston -8.5 (-110)
Total: (no wager on the total points here)
