The Boston Celtics (6-3) visit Denver to play the Nuggets (8-1) in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring. The game is scheduled to get underway at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, November 5, 2018.
Denver is a 2.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 205 points.
Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The Celtics were unable to cover as 3.5-point favorites in their 102-101 loss to the Indiana Pacers in their last contest. The game’s combined points (203) came in just under the O/U total of 206. One of Indiana’s biggest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They had 25 free throw attempts, while Boston had just nine. Marcus Morris was Boston’s leading scorer with 23 points on 9-for-13 shooting.
In the Nuggets’ last game, they defeated the Utah Jazz, 103-88, easily covering as 4.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (191) came in well under the projected point total of 210. Denver’s 0.548 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Utah, who had a mark of 0.444. The Nuggets’ mark was above their season average of 0.510, while the Jazz’s was below their season average of 0.543. With seven points, 16 assists and 10 rebounds, Nikola Jokic played well for Denver.
This contest figures to be low-scoring as two of the NBA’s top defenses clash. Since the 2017-18 season, Denver ranks third in defensive efficiency (108.5) and Boston is first (102.2). Additionally, the Celtics, who rank 27th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.2 percent), could have a tough time getting second chance points against the Nuggets, who rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (77.7 percent).
Boston has a solid 6-3 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 4-5 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Celtics tend to go under the total (66.7 percent).
Meanwhile, Denver is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS. Similarly to Boston, Nuggets games also have a tendency to finish under the total (77.8 percent).
The Celtics won both games against the Nuggets last season. In the most recent matchup, Boston won 111-110. Boston’s 0.566 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Denver, who had a mark of 0.505.
Celtics at Nuggets ATS Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Denver is 20-2 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Boston is 45-8.
When reaching the century mark, the Celtics are 57-17 and the Nuggets are 47-27.
Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (14.3) while Boston ranks last (12.1).
The Nuggets rank second in points in the paint per game (49.9) while the Celtics rank 29th (39.7).
Denver ranks second in steals per game (7.8) while Boston ranks 26th (7.2).
The Nuggets rank third in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while the Celtics rank 25th (44.1).
Boston ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (31.0) while Denver ranks 24th (30.6).
The Nuggets rank 10th in points off turnovers per game (17.0) while the Celtics rank last (15.0).
Boston ranks second in blocks allowed per game (4.5) while Denver ranks 18th (4.8).
The Celtics rank second in assists allowed per game (21.2) while the Nuggets rank 15th (24.6).
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