The Denver Nuggets (26-23) will have their hands full against the league’s top shooting defense when they challenge the Boston Celtics (35-15) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, January 29, 2018, and will air on NBATV.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 204 points with Denver opening as a 1.5-point favorite.
Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
The Celtics are trying to rebound after their 109-105 loss to the Golden State Warriors in their last game. Golden State was successful at getting to and converting from the charity stripe. The Warriors made 23 of their 26 free throws (88.5 percent), while the Celtics were 17-24 (70.8 percent). Kyrie Irving was Boston’s leading scorer with 37 points on 13-for-18 shooting.
The last time the Nuggets played, they edged the Dallas Mavericks, 91-89. The Nuggets held the Mavericks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.4 (below the 21.3 mark opponents have averaged against Denver this season). The Mavericks had a free throw rate of 0.118 (below their season average of 0.173). With 11 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists, Denver’s Nikola Jokic led the way with his first triple-double this season.
Denver might struggle to find the bottom of the net as they battle against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Boston currently ranks first in defensive efficiency while the Nuggets rank 12th in offensive efficiency.
Boston holds records of 35-15 straight up (SU) and 29-19-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Celtics games, with 26 unders compared to 24 overs.
Meanwhile, Denver is 26-23 SU and 21-25-3 ATS. Of the Nuggets’ 49 games, 30 have finished under the projected point total.
Marcus Morris has averaged 13.2 points and 5.6 rebounds over the last five games for Boston.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Irving had 33 points and seven assists and the Celtics defeated the Nuggets 124-118, resulting in a push. The game finished with a total of 242 points, which was 33.5 points above the projected point total of 208.5 points. The Celtics had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.665 vs. 0.544) and had a better free throw rate (0.241 vs. 0.209).
Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Free Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Boston is 16-8 ATS with 13 unders and 11 overs.
At home, Denver is 13-11-1 ATS with 16 unders and 9 overs.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Boston is 24-2 and Denver is 13-2.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Celtics are 25-7 and the Nuggets are 20-14.
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while Boston ranks 23rd (44.1).
The Nuggets rank sixth in points in the paint per game (48.1) while the Celtics rank 27th (39.1).
Boston ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (7.0) while Denver ranks 24th (8.5).
The Celtics rank 10th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.4) while the Nuggets rank 29th (19.4).
Boston ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.0) while Denver ranks 22nd (23.9).
The Nuggets rank third in second chance points per game (14.3) while the Celtics rank 20th (11.5).
Boston ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (9.7) while Denver ranks 16th (11.9).
The Celtics rank sixth in three pointers attempted per game (31.7) while the Nuggets rank 13th in three pointers allowed per game (28.7).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Boston is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Celtics have been outscored by an average of 2.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Boston has defeated opponents by an average of 4.4 points.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 105.8 points per game (0.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.0 points per game (0.5 below their season average).
