The Boston Red Sox will be taking on their division rival Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. New England Sports Network will televise the matchup and the game will get going at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Odds
Vegas has listed Boston (-125) as the favorite over Tampa Bay (+115). The total is sitting at 7.5 runs and gamblers can take the over for -115 or the under for -105. You can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds coming in at Red Sox -1.5 runs (+120) and Rays +1.5 runs (-140).
The Red Sox have gone 34-15 SU this year and are 25-23 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 10.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline through the early part of the season and 1.4 units ATS. The Rays, on the other hand, are 22-25 SU and 23-23 ATS. The team has lost 1.4 units for moneyline bettors and 1.1 units ATS.
Neither squad has been an obvious over/under play this season. Tampa Bay games have had an over/under record of 23-21-2 so far in 2018. Boston has an over/under record of 22-24-2.
Rick Porcello is getting the nod for the visiting Red Sox. The right-handed Porcello is 6-1 with a 3.39 ERA and 63 strikeouts. He’s 2-0 with 17 strikeouts and a 3.10 ERA against Tampa Bay this year (six starts).
The Rays will send lefty Blake Snell (5-3, 3.07 ERA) to the mound. Snell has 61 punchouts and 19 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.04. Snell is 1-0 with 11 strikeouts and a 1.38 ERA across two starts against Boston this year.
Boston’s pitchers have allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starters own a 3.54 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.95 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.42, along with a WHIP of 1.17 and a K-per-9 of 9.97.
The Red Sox offense has slashed .267/.333/.460 on its way to 5.3 runs scored per game this year, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
Boston’s offensive production been led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, who collectively have blasted 31 home runs. Betts is hitting .364/.440/.763 with 16 home runs, 35 RBIs, 49 runs and 11 stolen bases, while Martinez is hitting .335 with 15 homers, 41 RBIs and 32 runs scored.
Betts enjoyed hitting against left-handed pitchers last season. Across 148 plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .306/.412/.516 (his total season line was .264/.344/.459).
In the other dugout, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has given up 4.6 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have a 4.27 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In 23 divisional games, Rays starters have an ERA of 5.63 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.83.
The Tampa Bay hitters are putting up 4.3 runs per outing, including 4.2 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .216/.303/.365 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Rays’ hitters have been led by first baseman C.J. Cron and third baseman Matt Duffy. Cron is slashing .272/.323/.495 with 11 home runs, 28 RBIs and 27 runs scored, while Duffy’s line is .311/.352/.415 with 42 hits, 14 RBIs and nine runs.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .248/.305/.437, Cron enjoyed hitting against righty pitching at home last season, slashing .294/.371/.492 over 143 such plate appearances.
The Red Sox have lost 1.9 units and are 3-7 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in four of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Rays have lost 4.5 units and are 12-17 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 12 that went under the total.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Red Sox, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The over has cashed in three of Tampa Bay’s last seven games.
The Red Sox have won six of their last seven games SU.
Boston has posted 22.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.8 over its last five.
The Red Sox have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.
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