Jake Odorizzi (8-5, 3.63 ERA) and Drew Pomeranz (10-9, 2.95 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays (53-72) and the Boston Red Sox (71-55) at Tropicana Field. The Rays won the last game 4-3, and Boston leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 25 and can be seen on NESN and SUN.
Odorizzi pitched 6.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering one run, striking out four and walking one in an 8-2 win over the Rangers. Evan Longoria (.287, 67 Rs, 30 HRs, 79 RBIs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Pomeranz went 5.0 innings, surrendering one run and striking out three in a 3-2 win over the Tigers in his most recent start. David Ortiz (.321, 62 Rs, 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Red Sox, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs.
Boston takes on Tampa Bay as a -125 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at seven runs. The Rays have recorded an overall money line of -2,674 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 20-35. Tampa Bay has recorded a disappointing 1-3 record as the underdog over its last 10 games. The Rays have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 6.2 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.2 runs per game.
In games where it is the favorite, Boston has a 53-37 record and an overall money line of +63. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games playing as the favorite, and have an 8-2 SU record over the same span. Offensively, they average 5.5 runs per game, which the best in the AL. The Red Sox are tough outs for opponents, leading the AL with 9.9 hits per game. Shifting to the pitching staff and defense, the Red Sox allow just four runs per road game, ranking them fourth in the AL. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Red Sox are fifth in the AL with an average of 8.4 hits allowed per game. The Red Sox have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an AL-best 8.1 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Red Sox lead the season series, 7-5. The Rays have a 14-18 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Pomeranz takes the mound. Odorizzi (RHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 55-40 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Red Sox lost by a margin of one run. The Rays are 9-19 in one-run games. The Red Sox have a 16-15 record in close games.
The Rays are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Red Sox have a 22-26 record when opponents give up two walks or less.
When they are outhit, the Rays are 10-54. The Red Sox have an 8-35 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling in the top 10 of the league based on total home runs this season, Tampa Bay ranks sixth with 167 homers and Boston is 10th with 161.
Ranking first in hits, Boston has earned 9.92 per game this season. Tampa Bay ranks 15th with 8.10 hits.
Boston tops the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .818 this season. Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom half at 16th with an OPS of .735.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 42-45. When the Rays allow one or more homers, they have a 29-64 record.
