Clay Buchholz (6-6, 3.48 ERA) and Collin McHugh (9-3, 4.51 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Boston Red Sox (37-45) and the Houston Astros (48-34) at Fenway Park. The Astros won the last game 12-8, continuing a five-game winning streak. Action begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jul. 4 and can be seen on ROOT-SW and NESN.
Buchholz pitched 8.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run and striking out five in a 3-1 win over the Blue Jays. Hanley Ramirez (.280, 45 Rs, 17 HRs, 41 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. When pitching against the Red Sox, McHugh is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and six strikeouts. Jose Altuve (.303, 40 Rs, 7 HRs, 35 RBIs, 23 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Astros, going 3 for 5 yesterday with two runs and two RBIs.
Boston is a -128 favorite against Houston and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Red Sox have an overall money line of -1,347 and a record as the favorite of 21-28.
In games where it is the underdog, Houston has a 23-16 record and an overall money line of +1,064. Offensively, they average 4.5 runs per game, which is good for fourth in the AL. The Astros are tough outs for opponents, ranking third in the AL with 8.9 hits per road game. The Astros are an excellent base stealing team with 66 stolen bases, ranking third in the MLB. Houston’s pitching staff is one of the top in the AL, with a 3.44 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Astros are the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.17 for the season.
The Astros have the edge in the season series, 1-0. The Red Sox have a 28-32 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when McHugh takes the mound. Buchholz (RHP) will be on the hill against the Astros, who have a 30-18 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 47% (18-20) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 61% (20-13) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Astros who are coming in with a 26-10 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 7-38. The Astros have a 10-23 record when opponents outhit them.
Houston tops the league in home runs with 116 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 11th with 80.
Ranking 12th, Houston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.04 per game. Boston ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.78.
Ranking 12th, Boston is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.720). Houston ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .738.
The Astros are 18-24 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 14-36 when they allow at least one homer.
