Wade Miley (8-7, 4.53 ERA) and Dan Haren (6-5, 3.45 ERA) start in the first of a two-game series between the Boston Red Sox (39-45) and the Miami Marlins (35-48) at Fenway Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Jul. 7 and can be seen on FSN-FL and NESN.
Miley pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering four runs, striking out two and walking seven in a 12-6 win over the Blue Jays. Hanley Ramirez (.277, 47 Rs, 18 HRs, 43 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 3 Sunday with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. Haren is 2-7 with a 3.41 ERA against the Red Sox in his career. He is up against a quality Boston offense that’s batting .257.
The odds for Boston and Miami are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. Against the NL, the Red Sox have a 6-4 record SU. The Red Sox have no trouble scoring as they rank fifth in the AL in home offense with 4.6 runs per game. Boston’s batters do not strike out very often, with only 6.5 per game.
Miami is 5-8 SU against American League opponents. Offensively, the Marlins have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 3.6 runs per game by averaging 2.5 during that stretch. The Marlins allow 4.1 runs per game, but does worse whenever an AL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 5.0 against teams from the AL.
The Red Sox have a 30-33 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Haren takes the mound. Miley (LHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have a 9-10 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS
Notes
The Marlins are 3-1 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 3-3 in such matchups.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Marlins are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Red Sox have a 5-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 7-38. The Marlins have a 7-30 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 20th in home runs, Miami has hit 69 this season. Boston ranks 12th with 81 home runs.
Ranking eighth, Miami is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.55 per game. Boston ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.85.
Ranking 23rd, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.682). Boston ranks in the top half at 11th with an OPS of .723.
When the Marlins allow at least one home run, they are 17-30, well-matched with the Red Sox who are 15-36 when allowing at least one homer.
