Rick Porcello (4-9, 6.08 ERA) and Tom Koehler (7-4, 3.52 ERA) take the hill in the second of a two-game series between the Boston Red Sox (40-45) and the Miami Marlins (35-49) at Fenway Park. The Red Sox won the last game 4-3 and Boston leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jul. 8 and can be seen on FSN-FL and NESN.
Porcello pitched 2.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering seven runs and striking out three in an 11-2 defeat to the Blue Jays. Dustin Pedroia (.306, 34 Rs, 9 HRs, 33 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 3 yesterday with two RBIs. Koehler went 6.0 innings, surrendering one run, striking out four and walking one in a 2-1 win over the Cubs in his most recent start.
Boston is a -143 favorite against Miami and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Red Sox have an overall money line of -1,262 and a record as the favorite of 23-29. Against the NL, they have had a solid season, earning 5-3 and 6-4 records as the favorite and SU respectively. The Red Sox have no trouble scoring as they rank fifth in the AL in home offense with 4.6 runs per game. Boston’s batters do not strike out very often, with only 6.5 per game.
In the other locker room, Miami is coming in with an overall money line of -1,206 and a disappointing record of 18-30 as the underdog. Miami has put in a lackluster performance against American League opponents, coming in with a subpar record SU ({betdsi.at.al.su_record}) and as the underdog (1-5). Offensively, the Marlins have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 3.6 runs per game by averaging 2.5 during that stretch. The Marlins allow 4.1 runs per game, but does worse whenever an AL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 5.0 against teams from the AL.
The Red Sox have the edge in the season series, 1-0. The Red Sox have a 30-33 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Koehler takes the mound. Porcello (RHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have a 26-38 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS, O/U – Over
Notes
For the seventh time this season, the Marlins registered at least two errors in a game.
When the Marlins play into extra innings, they have a 3-1 record. The Red Sox are 3-3 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Marlins are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded nine strikeouts. The Red Sox have a record of 8-12 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 7-38. The Marlins have a 7-31 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 20th in home runs, Miami has hit 69 this season. Boston ranks 12th with 81 home runs.
Ranking eighth, Miami is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.55 per game. Boston ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.85.
Ranking 25th, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.681). Boston ranks in the top half at 11th with an OPS of .722.
When the Marlins allow at least one home run, they are 17-30, well-matched with the Red Sox who are 15-36 when allowing at least one homer.
