Joe Kelly (1-0, 4.94 ERA) and Adam Warren (1-1, 4.35 ERA) start in the last of a three-game series between the Boston Red Sox (12-12) and the New York Yankees (15-9) at Fenway Park. The Yankees won the last game 4-2 and New York leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 8:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 3 and can be seen on ESPN.
Kelly pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering five runs, striking out 10 and walking three in a 6-5 defeat to the Blue Jays. Hanley Ramirez (.281, 16 Rs, 10 HRs, 22 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 3 yesterday. Against the Red Sox, Warren is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts. Chris Young (.317, 11 Rs, 6 HRs, 12 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Yankees, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Boston is a -134 favorite against New York and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Red Sox have an overall money line of -102 and a record as the favorite of 8-7. Within its division, Boston has a 5-5 record as favorite and an 8-9 record SU. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Red Sox, who rank fourth in the AL in strikeouts per game with 8.5.
As for their opponent, New York is coming in with an overall money line of +463 and an impressive record of 7-4 as the dog. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have an 8-2 SU record over the same span. Offensively, they average five runs per game on the road, which is third in the AL. The Yankees have a dynamic offense, ranking second in the league with 82 extra base hits. New York is excellent at drawing walks with 3.9 per game, ranking second in the AL. The Yankees allow 3.7 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 2.8 runs per game during that span.
The Yankees lead the season series, 3-2. The Red Sox have a 10-8 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Warren takes the mound. Kelly (RHP) will be on the hill against the Yankees, who have a 10-6 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYY, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 45% (5-6) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 55% (6-5) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Yankees have a 1-1 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Yankees have a slight leg up on the Red Sox, as the Yankees have won their last two games while the Red Sox have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Red Sox and the Yankees are both undefeated. Boston has an 11-0 record in these situations while New York is 9-0.
Ranking sixth in runs, New York has earned 116 this season. Boston ranks fourth with 117 runs.
Boston ranks at the top of the league when it comes to walks with 97 this season. New York ranks in the top five at second with 89.
The Red Sox are 8-9 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Yankees are 11-8 when they hit at least one homer.
