Joe Kelly (8-6, 4.94 ERA) and Adam Morgan (5-4, 4.03 ERA) take the hill in the first of a three-game series between the Boston Red Sox (61-72) and the Philadelphia Phillies (53-81) at Fenway Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 4 and can be seen on CSPh and NESN.
Kelly pitched 7.1 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run, striking out two and walking two in a 3-1 win over the Mets. David Ortiz (.265, 58 Rs, 29 HRs, 81 RBIs) went 1 for 3 Wednesday with one RBI. Morgan went 6.0 innings, surrendering zero runs (two unearned) and striking out three in a 4-3 win over the Padres in his last outing. Jeff Francoeur (.271, 30 Rs, 12 HRs, 43 RBIs) went 1 for 4 Wednesday with two runs and one RBI.
The odds for Boston and Philadelphia are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently not available. Against the NL, the Red Sox have a 10-7 record SU. The Red Sox have no trouble scoring as they rank third in the AL in offense with 4.5 runs per game. The Red Sox are one of the best in the AL in terms of hits with an impressive 9.2 per game. Boston’s batters do not strike out very often, with only 6.9 per game.
Philadelphia is 8-9 SU against teams in the AL. Offensively, the Phillies have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.9 runs per game by averaging 5.5 during that stretch. The Phillies are tough outs for opponents, ranking fourth in the NL with 8.9 hits per road game. The Phillies allow 5.1 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 7.3 runs per game during that span.
The Red Sox lead the season series, 2-1. The Red Sox have a 15-21 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Morgan takes the mound. Kelly (RHP) will be on the hill against the Phillies, who have a 40-64 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Bos
Notes
The Red Sox managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Phillies who are coming in with a 4-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 12-60. The Phillies have an 18-62 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 28th in home runs, Philadelphia has hit 105 this season. Boston ranks 15th with 129 home runs.
Ranking sixth, Philadelphia is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.67 per game. Boston ranks in the top five at third with 9.20.
Ranking 26th, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.692). Boston ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .739.
The Phillies are 25-60 when they allow at least one home run. The Red Sox perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 30-59 record.
