Rick Porcello (2-2, 5.34 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (12-14) go up against Drew Smyly (0-0, 3.38 ERA) and the Tampa Bay Rays (14-12) in the second of a three-game division series at Fenway Park. The Rays won the last game 5-1 and Tampa Bay leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May. 5 and will air on SunSports and NESN.
Porcello is 3-3 with a 3.21 ERA against the Rays in his career, and faces a struggling Tampa Bay offense that’s hitting just .232 on the year. Brock Holt (.358, 6 Rs, 1 HR, 8 RBIs, 1 SB) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run. In his pitching opportunities against the Red Sox, Smyly is 2-0 with a 2.82 ERA, 19 strikeouts and three walks. Logan Forsythe (.306, 8 Rs, 2 HRs, 11 RBIs, 1 SB) has been doing well, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
Boston, a -130 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Tampa Bay. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is eight runs. The Red Sox are 8-9 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -370. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 8-11 and a 5-7 record when they were the favorite. They have been very patient at the plate, leading the AL with an average of 4.1 walks per game. Turning to the pitching staff, they have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, averaging 8.2 strikeouts per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Rays come into this game with a win percentage of .533 when playing as the underdog (8-7) and an overall money line of +150. Against teams in their division, they are 11-11 SU and 6-6 as the underdog. The Rays seem to play worse against their division opponents. In divisional matchups, Tampa Bay has averaged 3.3 runs per game, compared to 3.6 for the duration of the season. The last 10 games have really brought the best out of the Tampa Bay pitchers. They’ve allowed 2.5 runs per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 3.8. They have a WHIP of 1.11, second best in the MLB.
In their previous four games this season, the Rays have a 3-1 record. Taking the hill against the Rays will be the right-hander Porcello. They sport a 10-8 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Tampa Bay is 5-5, while Boston is 5-7.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Red Sox are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Rays have a 7-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 1-14. The Rays have a 1-9 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 14th in home runs, Tampa Bay has hit 21 this season. Boston ranks eighth with 29 home runs.
Ranking 13th, Tampa Bay is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.64 per game. Boston ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.52.
Ranking 20th, Tampa Bay is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.680). Boston ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .707.
The Rays are 5-7 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 6-13 when they allow at least one homer.
