Joe Kelly (1-0, 4.08 ERA) and Aaron Sanchez (1-2, 5.14 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Boston Red Sox (10-9) and the Toronto Blue Jays (9-10) at Fenway Park. Action begins at 6:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Apr. 27 and can be seen on RSN and NESN.
Kelly pitched 5.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering five runs, striking out seven and walking one in a 7-5 defeat to the Rays. Hanley Ramirez (.300, 14 Rs, 8 HRs, 17 RBIs, 1 SB) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 5 with two runs, two home runs, and four RBIs. Sanchez is 0-1 with a 1.80 ERA against the Red Sox in his career. He takes on a below-average Boston offense that’s batting just .234. Josh Donaldson (.347, 14 Rs, 4 HRs, 14 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Boston is a -143 favorite against Toronto and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Red Sox have an overall money line of +48 and a record as the favorite of 6-5. Within its division, Boston has a 3-3 record as favorite and a 6-6 record SU. The Red Sox have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the AL in offense with 4.9 runs per game. Boston leads the whole AL in walks, earning an average of 4.2 per game.
In games where it is the underdog, Toronto has a 4-4 record and an overall money line of -190. They are 4-4 as the underdog against AL East rivals, and 8-7 SU. Offensively, they average 5.5 runs per game, which is tops in the AL. The Blue Jays are tough outs for opponents, ranking fifth in the AL with 8.3 hits per game.
The Red Sox have an 8-6 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Sanchez takes the mound. Kelly (RHP) will be on the hill against the Blue Jays, who have a 7-8 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 50% (4-4) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 71% (5-2) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Blue Jays who are coming in with a 5-3 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 1-9. The Blue Jays have a 1-8 record when opponents outhit them.
Boston and Toronto both rank in the top five of the league in home runs. Boston sits at fifth with 23 home runs this season and Toronto ranks second with 25.
Ranking seventh, Boston is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.28 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.33.
Ranking 15th, Boston is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.692). Toronto ranks in the top 10 at eighth with an OPS of .746.
The Blue Jays are 8-6 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 5-8 when they allow at least one homer.
